If Winnie's Puppet Carrie Lam actually goes through with Extradition Bill, HK Interbank and entire banking system snaps into oblivion... Interesting development
Nonsense. There is zero correlation between the currency peg and the extradition bill. By the way, the extradition bill/treaty clearly stipulates that there are judicial proceedings before anyone is extradited. The claim by Bass that anyone can just be shipped to China is factually wrong. Also hardly anyone who is well off in HK is leaving HK, another wrong statement by Bass. Anyone who is wealthy in HK has long time ago diversified their investments outside of HK. Hence there is nothing that impacts the pact as function of this extradition treaty. The biggest danger to the peg is if the US state department withdraws its special treatment of HK as a free trade zone. As usual Kyle Bass is talking out of his ass (aka talking his book), nothing else.
Not sure i'll watch the video, just wanted to note at least a couple of people have already been kidnapped in HK than shipped to China by Mainland authorities, without a serious peep from HK authorities. Might be many more, I don't follow the news closely, but the book seller than the tycoon kidnapped in four Seasons spring to mind.It's likely the situation will get worse with the new extradition bill. It has become apparent for a while now HK has lost much of its independence from China, politically at least. Yet I wouldn't bet that means a great threat to HK economically , especially that lately China has managed to get people extradited on dubious grounds even from Western countries- others have disappeared in China friendly countries to reappear in Mainland custody without any form of legal due process afaik.
Agree fully with your points. If I might add, most everyone on a factual basis should understand that HK is de facto China and the gripe of most in HK who oppose China are mostly angered that China is tightening the screws earlier than the promised 2047 deadline it initially agreed to with the UK. I have numerous friends here in HK who take a very pro independence stance and I keep saying to them that they are fighting for an illusion that will never happen. My earlier post merely tried to clarify that this extradition bill has zero impact on economics in HK and especially not on the peg. It's not that US will withdraw its special treatment status of HK due to this bill.
Yeah, and for how long has he predicted the demise of JGBs? Forever, and he got his ass handed to him. Next he bet against the yuan and got that wrong too. Now he aims at hkd for the 2nd straight year without success. I can list 10 hedge fund managers who have a way better track record and are rather worth listening to.
We all have our losses. I like listening to smart people but only trust positions taken by my own work.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ost-crisis-danger-in-next-3-years-nomura-says This is exactly from one year ago, when the global economy was " red hot "... Imagine outlook now ? Grulstrmm, time to admit your an idiot with a opinion, nothing more... In your delusion, facts do not matter, only wishful thinking, I quote article : Emerging markets are in far greater danger of a financial crisis than their developed peers, and Hong Kong has the most to fear, according to an update of Nomura Singapore Limited’s collection of early-warning indicators. Hong Kong and China are the only constituencies in grave danger of a financial crisis or sharp drop in domestic demand in the next three years, with the red flags more prominent for Hong Kong than even during the peak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, according to the research note published Wednesday by Nomura’s Rob Subbaraman and Michael Loo. “The results continue to show that EM countries are considerably more vulnerable than DM countries to credit and financial stress,” Subbaraman and Loo wrote. At the same time, they found tentative evidence that China’s status is improving amid deleveraging efforts. Taking some cues from work by the Bank for International Settlements, the Nomura economists tested the reliability of indicators used to gauge conditions across 30 countries dating to the early 1990s and separated equally among Asian economies, emerging markets, and developed markets. The economists found that five gap measures were most accurate in predicting a financial crisis within the ensuing 12 quarters: Private credit-to-GDP Private debt-service ratio Real effective exchange rate Real property prices, and Real equity prices Judging by the most reliable 60 signals, Nomura determined that a financial crisis or demand plunge is typical for those economies that see at least 30 of those signals flashing red. Hong Kong is “well in the danger zone” with 52, and China still should be on guard at 33. Thailand, Colombia, and the Philippines are the closest to the unfavorable threshold at 21, 20, and 19, respectively. The only Asian economies among the 14 that have zero signals flashing red are India and South Korea, the data show.
Why are HK Interbank rates spiking and showing extreme volatility when Interbank rates are supposed to be smooth ? Don't reply with your shitty opinion, everyone knows your a truck, reply with facts...
Here you go, idiot: the facts: Hibor and USD Libor Charts. Since Jan 2019 both exhibited a range of around 40 basis points. Hibor was in no way more volatile. Hibor is traditionally more volatile on higher frequencies because it is a city state not a huge country, 7mln people vs 328mln people. You are a muppet. You asked for facts here are your cold facts. https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/interbank-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interbank-rate