Can Google's Search Volume Predict The Market?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Sotnis, Sep 18, 2015.

  1. Sotnis

    Sotnis

    Quite an interesting thing.

    I cover banks so let's look at the top 3 banks in size to see if a compelling trend emerges that can help predict entry/exit points. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are all compelling investments.

    Though WFC edged out JPM in net income again in Q2, JPM is still the largest US bank by assets. Here's a price/net income chart.

    [​IMG]

    And, here's a chart of searches for the term "JPM" over roughly the same time period:

    [​IMG]
    (Source: Google Trends)

    I drew in the red line. The letters mark news events.

    You will notice that high search volume is negatively correlated with stock price, which suggests investors search for stock more when the price is going down, but can this be used as a forward indicator; does it have any predictive value?

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    Zestilio likes this.
  2. I see no useful correlation here.
    Even the net income to stock price is very tenous at best.
    Look at 2012 : stock price down, net income up.