The indication of a possible turn south signaled by my “fast” trend line was never confirmed by my “slow” trend line. What’s more, the faster indicator failed to follow through, so now even my fast line has resumed an upward trajectory. Accordingly, I had to abandon the position and will seek to short the pair once again if and when both indicators hook southward.
Having initiated a clear decent on October 4th and entered into consolidation on October 11th, my charts are now suggesting to me that CADJPY is attempting to begin a wholesale reversal the north, so I will not be shorting the pair a second time after all. Instead, as things now stand (which obviously will not remain the same for long) I will be more likely to buy the asset if and when it pulls back to somewhere around the 86.42 level.
A number of currency pairs appear to be trying to take off in a new direction—CADJPY being among them. My numbers point to 86.52 as a launching pad at the foot of what might prove to be the beginning of a new and significant ascent northward.
On a wider perspective, CAD is bullish against 5 of its 6 major counters, its only weak against the GBP but that's probably occurring from GBP recovery not CAD deterioration. JPY is only bullish against AUD and NZD, but again, that's probably more to do with their weakness than JPY's strength. ON this basis, long CAD/JPY would be the favoured medium-term play. Long GBP/JPY would on paper be a better option but not while the GBP is subject to extra volatility risk from the Brexit deal news and rumours.
Unfortunately, I was not awake to exit my position when CADJPY decided it did not wish to continue heading north after all, so I ended up getting stopped out of the trade...
CADJPY has yet to duck under my trigger line, but I am entering a short position at this time nonetheless due to the pair's structure and bearish sentiment.
I was stopped out of my position with the release of Canada's Federal Bank rate decision, so it will probably be at least a couple of hours before I can determine if or how I should make up my loss.