http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cabelas-beats-1q-profit-forecasts-120342738.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/now-may-good-time-sell-175833754.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tops...nings-top-revenues-lag-view-intact/ar-BBsqA21 http://www.investopedia.com/stock-a...part-it-cab-bac-c-cof-gs.aspx?partner=YahooSA http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.CAB.NYS http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cab Trade: With CAB at 50.29 40/35//60/65 Iron Condor for a net credit of $170 yield = 170/330 = 52% in 188 days (CAB between 40 and 60) Price............ Profit / Loss........... ROM % 30.00............... (330.00).............. -66.00% 35.00............... (330.00).............. -66.00% 36.81............... (149.40).............. -29.88% 38.30.................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 40.00................. 170.00................ 51.50% 45.00................. 170.00................ 51.50% 59.00................. 170.00................ 51.50% 60.00................. 170.00................ 51.50% 61.70..................... 0.00................. 0.00% 65.00................. (330.00)............ -66.00% 70.00................. (330.00)............ -66.00%
I can't verify/confirm this trade with such a high yield of 52% as I'm getting only a poor 3.85%. For debugging can you please post the parts of the condor with the premiums you used. Below are the premiums from weekend, ie. after Fridays's close. I tried many combinations but I've not been able to replicate your trade. Can it be that you maybe made an error in your analysis? Thx
Symbol.....................................................Price Sell -1 CAB Dec16 60 Call............ $1.55 Buy 1 CAB Dec16 65 Call............. $0.55 Sell -1 CAB Dec16 40 Put............. $1.75 Buy 1 CAB Dec16 35 Put.............. $1.05 Requirements Cost/Proceeds ($170.00) Option Requirement $500.00 Total Requirements 500 - 170 = $330.00 Yield = $155 - $55 + $175 - $105 = $170/$330 = .515151 = 52% in 188 days I am using the same set of numbers you have. Was ist das Problem??? Verstehen sie das Iron Condor??? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_condor El Condor Pasa:
I further analyzed that, and unfortunately came to the conclusion that this trade can't be executed. I would say there is a cardinal error in this kind of trade: since volume is 0 for the said strikes, then the used "last" price can be stone age old, and I'm afraid it indeed is. You should instead use Bid/Ask as they are more uptodate than Last, but then of course a much different trade would come out, far from this one... So, IMO that trade cannot work... unless someone shows me that the last price is that of Friday, but that is impossible, because then volume wouldn't be zero for Friday's EOD data...
Well... so far I've gotten $70 for the 40/35 bull put spread. This would yield me 70/430 = 16.3% in the 188 days. That's 31% annualized. The market won't give me the $100 I want for the 60/65 bear call spread ...yet. It's entirely possible given current bid/ask so I'll be patient for the rest of the afternoon. The market showed no interest in giving me the whole condor at once. It may be related to the fact that my broker is oriented towards executing the vertical spreads but chokes a little on a whole condor at once. BTW... Peru is truly a beautiful and primitive place. I wish I had the time to take a trip to Machu Picchu in the Andes. http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/274 (If you are confused this related to El Condor Pasa above)
Hi nemesis, yes, 16.3% is still a respectable figure. But the problem I see is that it has too many legs (4), and therefore to get all the legs filled is not that easy, and can also be risky if a leg can't be filled (assuming not submitting to the Complex Order Book, COB). Because of that I myself prefer single legs, sometimes spreads (2 legs), sometimes combined with stock pos. I've written a program to find such interessting trades. It uses Bid/Ask, and that was the reason why I initially couldn't verify the trade. It is specialised primarily on weeklys, and monthlys that too become weeklys once a month, like in this week. It finds many trades with a yield > 5% (sometimes even >20%) in such a short time frame of a week and less. I'm currently testing whether the found trades could also be practically filled. Preliminary results are very good. I'll soon post some of its trade recommendations here for public verification. Regarding Peru: yes, a nice and quite place for resting. If you invite me to such a trip I would come with you Cheers
Filled the 60/65 bear call spread for $70 to complete the Iron Condor. Sooooo: Cost/Proceeds ($140.00) Option Requirement $500.00 Total Requirements 500 - 140 = $360.00 Yield = $140/$360 = .38888 = 39% in 188 days= 75% annualized. The market just wasn't gonna give me another $100 so I settled for $70. I could have waited a little longer and held out for the $170 and 52% but it just didn't feel like the market was going to give it up any time soon. I'm happy with what we got. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cab Price............ Profit / Loss........... ROM % 30.00............... (360.00).............. -61.12% 35.00............... (360.00).............. -61.12% 36.81............... (149.40).............. -29.88% 38.30.................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 40.00................. 140.00................ 38.88% 45.00................. 140.00................ 38.88% 59.00................. 140.00................ 38.88% 60.00................. 140.00................ 38.88% 61.70..................... 0.00................. 0.00% 65.00................. (360.00)............ -61.12% 70.00................. (360.00)............ -61.12% NOW we have to see if what was written about CAB was right. I'm more concerned about the top than the bottom.... but you can't make any money unless you are willing to take the risk.
These are real. Yahoo shows the volume for today in the 60/65. The 40/35 was yesterday. I am evidently the only trader doing this spread. That's good. No competition... but sometimes it means no fill as the MM's sometimes just ignore me. I guess they don't want to put down their pastrami sandwich to give me my trade. Re Machu Picchu I have been looking at some videos and am afraid that I will not make it there this incarnation. I would not be able to do the hiking required. Also there are a lot of tourists. I have been to Paris about 10 or so times and have never been to the Eifel Tower ... you have to wait too long in line and I don't have that kind of patience.