I do not know why there is so little info on this strategy. Maybe it is because the masses can only think of going long and cannot understand how to take advantage of a falling stock. I have been buying puts with 3-4 weeks expiration, these are stocks clearly in a down trend. It is working well. Old stat that says stocks go down 3 times faster then they go up and I fully believe this. Maybe the fact that this is something very few folks do says I am on to something. current trades,,,, BULL, UNH , MLGO
yes I do... I start with a scan that is for stocks negative 20% for the last 30 days,, then I look for it to trade below the 21 day EMA, and be making new lows on a consistent basis... I can scan charts very quickly to see the pattern. then the deal that kills a huge number of these setups.. the put options have to be decent with good volume, open interest and spread. Many of these do not pass that test.
so u wait till it's down and then buy puts lol way to think like retail... 90% of options expire worthless - happy sellers
no , catch it when it has rolled over , but I am not trying to catch the very top... I just want the middle of the move... Why would anyone wait till it is way down to do this....
i never understood why people buy options other than bad judgment. option sellers sell options to people when they want it the most which is when it's obvious. if i were to ever buy a option i would buy puts when it's going up on a spike and buy calls when it looks like it will continue to fall just opposite of your idea. at these extremes the prices are cheap - when the price direction is obvious option sellers get premium prices. if option buyers were so smart why would anyone sell options and take such risk?
Because of what's called the volatility risk premium*. Which basically claims your strategy is destined to lose (unless you're using the put as some kind of protection/hedge). People get paid extra to take on risk. Anyway, as they say, no risk no reward. (replied to you MB even though I suspect this q was rhetorical) There are two big problems w/ just buying single legs for profit IMHO... theta decay and an inability to estimate what vol will be realized (not IV, but what will actually happen). The research and info that *is* out there almost universally acknowledges that people hate losing money more than they like making money. Ergo, they pay extra to buy puts.
The volatility risk premium means that in average the implied volatility is higher than the realized volatility. It doesn't mean that buying options is for suckers. Theta decay is the least of my worries when buying options but I know option`s sellers love it. Uncertainty in RV is a risk for both the seller and the buyer of the strike. Both sides have their dumb & smart players otherwise there would be no market. Buying put options on falling stocks is a sound strategy. Long delta & vega. Why isn't it more documented ? Short stocks selling isn't glamorous.
I think it’s a solid plan versus buying a gap or shorting a spike. I bought the BDX $180 and $175 puts($2s-$3s) as it dropped. They hit $12 and $8.80. My best trades happen when I watch these break down and obey the tape. As long as the tanking stock doesn’t have activists like CMG or SBUX, it usually works. Last week my PEP puts paid well, you could see the systematic sell orders. Pepsi fell from $140 to $131.5 before stabilizing.