Simple logic here: If: Bull Market Then: Sell in May and go away If: Bear Market Then: Buy(or cover) in May and go away* Logical progression leads to the down trend resuming later in the year, after a mid-year pause. This would mean commodities pause here and resume uptrend later in the year. Trend changes(bull to bear and vice-versa) need a shift in fundamentals. Fundamentals have not shifted out of Bear mode and this would corroborate the resumption of the Bear trend after the mid-year pause. Until fundamentals change: Mid-term - ranging with upside bias Longterm -down ---------- Opinions? *edit* I wrote sell in bear market, but meant to write buy