I'm having a tough time deciding. There's definitely some bullish action, as evidenced by the fact that the last 5 bearish days all ended up significantly off the lows. But, the bull can't seem to move past the ~10,430 Fib 50% retracement from high to low. Today was a good step towards a break-out, IMO, but I think we need another up day tomorrow to confirm it. What do you all think?
Hey blue bull, I am definitely looking for more confirmation of a substantial breakout. Otherwise, we still have a rising wedge on the weekly, and a weak RSI. If the dollar were to rebound and the VIX to break out, we could even retest the 50 MA below on the daily. Look at this chart to see if you agree: http://www.freetradingvideos.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1964&PN=4 Today should be a telling day.
Probably why you're called "Smart Money". It's really quite simple. Follow the price action. Follow the trend. Yes, it will eventually change, but until it does, staying out of it is just wrong. Going against it is stupid. It took me half a year to get this into my head, but I did.
Haha yes, despite my belief in technical analysis I think this past year has shown you are ultimately right. But the Fed has to let the dollar down slowly so there should be some small breaks along the way
It seems to me the Fed has to shrink their balance sheet and in the process constrict the currency supply. That will strengthen the dollar and raise real interest rates and cause equities to drop a bit. I agree the Fed has been forcing the market up to this point, and it's been quite a ride, but I don't see much evidence that they can, or will, continue doing so. It's not like the can lower rates. If we make new highs in the S&P 1120+ range in the next week or so I'll be proved wrong. But right now I'm out of the equities market because I see a lot of sideways. If someone put a gun to my head, I'd say the next lows will be below the 50EMA again, quickly followed by a dip at least to 1030. Something analogous to June/July.
The can continue QE. They'll stop this in March, why not wait until at least then to see, or if they come out and say something else to the effect that backs up what you claim?
I'm with THE BIG D on this. Just bought a little TZA as a hedge. I'm on the Union Carpenter's "Out of Work" List. And, as un-scientific as it is, it has been a very good leading indicator of the Monthly Unemployment Report which comes out this Friday. When I first signed up I was #234 on May 15th. During the month of July I went from #162 down to 121 (41 positions closer to work). August saw a drop of 20. September sent 7 carpenters to work and we celebrated 10 new jobs in October putting me just 84 New Hires away from the NEW American dream. So what happened in November? ZERO, ZIP, NADA! Still good-ol' #84. Make of it what you will with the DOW, I'm riding with Big D. Addendum: My Union Local is #630 in Long Beach CA. Which is the Southern Portion of Los Angels County (A Pretty Good Area for my kind of work, or was).
Again, we're only going to see the number of jobs lost. Not the lack of those gained. The number of jobs lost should continue to decrease because companies are operating as slim as they dare at this point. This is my opinion only. Wall street will shrug it off and continue to buy.