Blackbox ETF Trading System

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by im412b, Mar 20, 2016.

  1. im412b

    im412b

    I have been on a 60 day trial to a weekly ETF trading system in which the hypothetical results seem a bit unbelievable. I have been able to at least verify the published performance of the signals for the past 26 weeks up until about 4 or 5 weeks ago. Since then his numbers do not match what I calculate and I wanted others to look into this. I have written several times indicating his numbers are in error but do not get a response. He just opened up the site for the next couple days so anyone can look at the results - http://tsppremium.com/action-status-report.php
    Trades begin with the closing price on the first trading day after the signal (usually a Monday) and are closed out the following week unless the signal is a hold.

    The weekly performance up until 1/8/16 is spot on. Since that time it seems he is making numbers up. He reports a 6% gain trading RWM for the week following the signal of 2/26/16 which is ludicrous. RWM went down for 4 out of 5 weeks that his system was recommending the trade but yet he shows positive performance for 3 of those weeks.
     
  2. Why pay someone with sketchy credentials for an ETF rotation strategy when you can make your own? Just google "ETF rotation strategies"

    Here's one I used as a starting point. The author wrote several other very well thought-out articles on variations of this theme.

    At Quantopian there are several ETF rotation strategies as well. Even better you can set up autotrading through them on Interactive Brokers.
     
  3. oly

    oly

    I agree, the 1/29 entry only works if it held overlapping the next entry. The 2/5 entry can't have made his stated returns. It could be a transcription error - never attribute to malice what could just be clumsiness. But then, you don't really want to trade a black box with a klutz relaying the signals either.

    Also agree with stevegee58 - there are plenty of published decent ETF strategies out there. Take one and run with it. If some day you find a white box ETF system with better results you can always "upgrade" and you're probably better off than using this service.

    You could also just wait out a bit. Almost all of the ETFs I follow are below the 200 day moving average and I am waiting for them to enter an uptrend before I trade any of them. Gold is the notable exception.
     
  4. My rotation includes EDV which is currently above the 50/200:cool:
     
    oly likes this.