While we make fun of Biden for being a gaffe machine for saying things like "You ain't Black", he continues to gain power among seniors. Even if the Black voter turn-out for him is lower, he is making gains in other groups. It is easy to make fun of Joe Biden for being appearing to be a confused and feeble old man. However, seniors find him relatable and don't buy into those insults against him. I think Trump can still win if Biden selects a lousy VP (like Stacy Abrams). If Biden selects an okay VP and limits future gaffes then he might have a chance of winning this thing. What's driving Biden's strength with seniors Alexi McCammond, Margaret Talev Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios President Trump's declining support among older voters since the coronavirus took hold is well documented, but new data offers a clearer understanding of why that's happening — and how it could impact the November election. The big picture: Among the 65+ crowd, it's women driving the exodus. Joe Biden's appeal with senior men climbed during his surprise comeback to be the presumed Democratic nominee, but not necessarily at Trump's expense — and new polling suggests it may be ebbing in any case. The coronavirus matters, but so does health care policy overall. By the numbers: A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Biden leading Trump by 22 points among female voters 65+, while Trump leads Biden by 11 points among older men. That's what gets Biden to a 10-point overall lead over the president among seniors. "There is a big gender gap among seniors in the matchup, just as there is among all registered voters," says poll director Doug Schwartz. "Older women really like Joe Biden, and they really don’t like Donald Trump." Since February, Quinnipiac data also shows Biden has increased his lead over Trump with independent 65+ voters, from seven to 20 points. Between the lines: The seeds were planted years ago. Biden has led Trump with seniors in theoretical matchups dating back to 2015. Trump's prospects with seniors have depended to a large degree on the alternative. The 65+ vote helped put Trump over the top in 2016. Those voters made up more than a fourth of the electorate and went for Trump over Hillary Clinton, 53% to 44%, the Pew Research Center found. Biden has a +12-point favorability standing among seniors; at the same point in the cycle four years ago, Clinton's favorability with seniors was running a deficit of -13, per Quinnipiac. A Monmouth University poll out last week shows another strength Biden has over Clinton: He's winning voters who don't like either of the major party nominees by more than 40 percentage points. In 2016, Clinton lost them to Trump by 17 percentage points. Republicans have won seniors by 5-12 percentage points since the 2000 election, but Trump's margin of victory with them in '16 was roughly half of what Romney earned the cycle before — and the lowest for any GOP nominee in nearly two decades. But the coronavirus does look to be hurting Trump with seniors. A recent Morning Consult poll showed Trump dropped 20 percentage points in a month in how seniors view his handling of the crisis. The other side: “Just like anyone else, senior citizens see President Trump leading the nation during the coronavirus response," Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in response to these findings. "Seniors also care about who can restore the economy, who will stand up to China, and who will put America first in every decision." "They care about a strong military, looking after veterans, and protecting Social Security and Medicare. President Trump wins on all those issues and Joe Biden’s record is abysmal.” What's next: AARP will conduct battleground polling later this year to understand what's motivating seniors, says Nancy LeaMond, the group's executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer. The coronavirus has elevated members' concerns about nursing home safety and demands for more transparency and protections for patients as well as tax relief for family caregivers. In 2016, she says, candidate Trump had said "very clearly he wasn’t going to cut Social Security, he wasn’t going to cut Medicare." But by 2018, "It was very clear that the senior vote was kind of up for grabs. The older voter voted to put Donald Trump in the White House, and then in 2018 the older voter moved towards the Democrats. I don’t think it’s a direct referendum. But it was very interesting." Don't forget: According to the 2020 Almanac of American Politics, many of the most important swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida) have at least slightly larger shares of 65 and older residents than the national average. States like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are also among the hardest hit by the coronavirus.
The only thing Stacy will do (in Trumps favor) will motivate more of his base to get out and vote. Thing is, they're gonna do that anyway. On the negative side of that coin, she will motivate huge numbers of AA's that otherwise would have stayed home to get out and vote. Now.... if mail-in ballots become the thing.... you can kiss Trump goodbye. That's a fact. Stacy or not. As always, just calling it like I see it. Trump's best hope at this point in the game is declining infection rates and subsequent deaths in the next 4 weeks as it appears America is saying f/u to Covid. We shall see.
Knowing how deep Biden is in the CCPs pocket, including the 1 billion deal with Hunter, why on earth would an American vote for such a corrupt politician? Biden and every liberal hating America will be in all fours for the CCP the day after inauguration. That is a fact. Why do I know? Because they have been for 30 fucking years already.
If he picks a black VP I don't think that will happen.If he doesn't pick a black VP I think it will.Sr's could make the difference if black voter turn out is low.
The nation will be fully open by election time (just my guess) so hopefully mail-in ballots won't take center stage. There would be too many headaches and issues with the entire nation voting by mail-in ballot.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/24/pennsylvania-election-nightmare-275410 Key swing state warns of November election 'nightmare' The outcome in Pennsylvania could remain up in the air long past Election Day. PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania could determine the presidency. But it might not be clear for days who won the state on Nov. 3. Election officials throughout the critical battleground, which is implementing no-excuse mail-in voting for the first time ever amid a pandemic, say they are unlikely to finish counting those ballots the night of the general election. If the race is close enough — as it was in 2016, when Donald Trump carried the state by only 44,000 votes — that could mean the status of one of the nation’s biggest swing states could remain up in the air long past Election Day. “My nightmare is that on Election Day in November, you're waiting for Montgomery County's results to declare Pennsylvania to declare who wins the White House,” said Montgomery County Commissioner Ken Lawrence, a Democrat who chairs the Board of Elections there. “The reality is that all of our counties are going to be in that same situation, and it will take a while to actually count the ballots.” Less than two weeks away fromPennsylvania’s primary, some state election officials said they lack the funding and staff needed to handle the massive influx of mail-in ballots they’ve received for that race. They also said the fact that they legally can’t start counting those ballots until the morning of Election Day is complicating matters. In addition to delaying a final tally, the chaos and confusion could sow distrust ahead of the general election and give fodder to those seeking to discredit its results. “I’ve had a lot of people reach out to me so far. They got the wrong party ballot sent to them. They got the wrong district ballot sent to them. And now I’m having people getting multiple ballots sent to them. These are the things that are inevitable when you rush the implementation of mail-in voting like we did here,” said Allegheny County Democratic Councilwoman and election board member Bethany Hallam. “But I’m worried that, if Donald Trump loses in November, do the Republicans use all these examples of errors with mail-in voting as their excuse to invalidate election results?” Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf signed no-excuse mail-in ballot voting and other reforms into law late last year, making the June 2 primary the first test of those changes. Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, election officials expected to have months, if not years, to acclimate voters to the option of voting by mail. Instead, they’ve been forced to transform the system overnight. In Philadelphia, whose metro area is the most populous part of the state, officials predicted before the pandemic that they would get 70,000 to 90,000 applications for mail-in and absentee ballots in the primary. Through Thursday, with several days to go until the deadline, they had already received about 158,000. They said the previous record, set in a presidential general election, was roughly 23,000. The deluge has led to a backlog: Officials said last week about 18,000 ballots are still waiting to be sent to city voters. In Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, the second biggest county in the state, the situation is worse: It had a backlog of 80,000 ballots last week. It has received more than 225,000 mail-in and absentee ballot applications through Thursday — compared with the 10,000 absentee ballots it gets in a typical presidential primary, officials said, “We don't just have a perfect storm. We have perfect storms,” said Republican Al Schmidt, one of the three Philadelphia city commissioners who oversee elections here. “We have new voting technology. We have an election reform that pushed back all the deadlines. And we have mail-in ballots and the pandemic.” Though election officials said they will process all of the mailed-in votes and that most of the errors with the ballots have been minor, they worry that news reports like thousands of ballots with flawed instructions being sent to voters in suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County will lead to increased suspicion of the new voting method. It’s unclear which party will be harmed more by such doubts. In low-income and minority neighborhoods in Democratic-dominated Philadelphia, voters have requested mail-in ballots at lower rates than those in more affluent areas. Overall, though, 69 percent of applications processed for mail and absentee ballots in the state have come from Democratic voters, compared with 30 percent from Republicans, which some GOP insiders in the state blame on Trump’s opposition to the voting method. Trump has railed against mail-in voting, claiming without evidence that it is “a very dangerous thing for this country because they’re cheaters.” On Wednesday, he incorrectly said that Michigan — like Pennsylvania, a Rust Belt giant that is critical to the president’s path to reelection — is sending absentee ballots to 7.7 million voters and threatened to withhold funding to the state “if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!” The state is sending applications, not the actual ballots, to all registered voters. Pennsylvania has not sent mail-in ballot applications to all eligible voters during the primary, though some local governments, such as Allegheny County, have. Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar is open to the possibility of sending mail-in ballot applications to every voter in the general election “with the necessary additional resources,” according to spokeswoman Wanda Murren. An aide to Wolf said the governor will make a determination on the idea “based on experience in the primary, as we understand county processing capacity and other factors.” Boockvar also supports allowing election officials to start counting mail ballots before Election Day, but that would require action by the state Legislature. Ahead of the primary, some election officials said unrealistic deadlines mean some voters won’t get their mail-in ballots in time. The final day a voter can apply for such a ballot is May 26, but election administrators must receive it just a week later. “The reality is if you apply on May 26 for your mail-in ballot, there's no way we're going to get it mailed out to you and you're going to mail it back before June 2,” Lawrence said. Montgomery County and other areas are putting out drop boxes so voters in that situation can deliver their ballots in person. Officials said hiring freezes and budget cuts that have been implemented because of the pandemic are making a bad situation worse. In Philadelphia, commissioners planned to hire about 50 more employees to help process the new law permitting voting by mail. But they were able to bring in only 25 before the coronavirus hit. Mayor Jim Kenney also initially proposed a $10 million increase to the City Commissioners Office this year, but withdrew the bump in a revised budget plan that he unveiled after the virus spread. Election officials throughout Pennsylvania said the $14 million allocated to the state for election assistance in the CARES Act is far from enough. “We would probably need millions in order to really adequately fulfill the huge lift,” said Lisa Deeley, a Democratic Philadelphia city commissioner. “My office has been a whirlwind.”