Better than wishful guessing, QQQ volume and VWAP

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by easymon1, Aug 14, 2020.

  1. easymon1

    easymon1

    Last edited: Aug 14, 2020
  2. ET180

    ET180

    Is VWAP actually a useful signal? Anyone done a backtest?
     
  3. Real Money

    Real Money

    VWAP and the closing price are the most important thing for the primary dealers, bulge-bracket, prime brokers, investment banks, broker dealers, swaps dealers (they have many names).

    They process client orders (size) and contractually guarantee fills at VWAP and/or closing for securities transactions (institutional money). If they beat VWAP and/or closing when executing on behalf of clients, they retain the difference.

    The FCM BDs, and FCM BD SDs are making a market in VWAP/closing and speculators are the counterparty to the individual executions facilitating the fulfillment of those contractual obligations (guaranteed VWAP/CLOSING).

    They will trade and compete for fills relative to VWAP/CLOSING and they manipulate the MKT, VWAP, AND the CLOSE.

    You know the names.

    Goldman, Morgan, Barclays, Merrill, Credit Suisse, BOFA, CITI, etc...

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    The system looks like a primitive momentum type thing with crossovers and candles.

    You can aggregate volumes in ThinkorSwim by combining tickers.

    Examples: AAPL + MSFT, XLK - 3*XLF, 5*/YM - 50*/ES

    It's nice to aggregate volumes, and calculate VWAP on stock and futures baskets, ratios of stocks, and synthetic portfolios and indexes using futures baskets and spreads.

    GV.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2020
    ET180, They, Tradex and 1 other person like this.
  4. Tradex

    Tradex

    Excellent post, RealMoney.
     
  5. easymon1

    easymon1

    Last edited: Aug 15, 2020
    Real Money likes this.
  6. Branos

    Branos

    It is interesting that today there are so many analysis methods that every trader can choose something special and interesting just to implement some specific ideas, etc. And such images prove that many systems have a serious and strong enough justification, which allows to make a clearer and more detailed analysis of an asset or the market as a whole. Namely this is the basis for competent and profitable trading, so I liked this approach too, I think it really deserves attention in order to try it at least on a demo, or maybe it should even be included in the main work and made a permanent part of your business.
     
  7. ET180

    ET180

    I understand that VWAP is widely followed...but does it provide an edge? The above video claims to and maybe it does...I would have to see a backtest...maybe the video does that too...have not watched it yet. My skepticism comes from the fact that it's pretty easy to develop a trading system based on VWAP or any other moving average. Usually long-term edge and easy to exploit do not go together.
     
  8. Here is my backtest result of a popular VWAP strategy on YT: