The SPX has today "tested the 100 day MA from the underside while the slope of the MA has turned down". This is technically referred to as a "back test" or "back kiss". Technical traders (you know, "Price TA"?) have sold into this level. We'll just have to see whether or not it sticks. For the market to be/remain bullish at this time, this level absolutely needs to be taken out and then hold above. Here's a classic example of why "Price TA" excludes volume from consideration. We won't know the volume for this "daily bar" until the close. Therefore.. volume is lagging, regardless. The important action was AT the Moving Average... volume was irrelevant. KISS, baby!
Well done you called it. I was long but reversed after that 4 hour bar closed and recovered earlier losses.
The Fed seems to be actively trying to tank the market, talking down every rally. Never thought I'd see the day, but for those long it's sure time to pay attention.
I have said it many times before. The Fed no longer cares about the stock market, because they can no longer trade it. And you know what? The Fed should never have cared about it in the first place. They need to worry about monetary policy. The market will find it's own footing without their interference.
I think the Fed does try to enact its monetary policies to do what's best for the economy. It's just that they use the market performance also besides the economic statistics at times as a gauge for how the economy is doing when designing its policy. That's why we see sometimes the monetary decisions seem to be more responsive and perhaps influenced by how the asset markets are performing. Right now, the Fed doesn't have a choice. It really needs to focus more on the economic statistics to decide on its monetary policies because the market performance no longer reflects accurately what's happening in the economy. One of the mechanisms of the "market" is not working right now because it's not working so the Fed would need to do more to compensate for it. The mechanism that's not working right now is labour participation. In order for the Fed to print money to stimulate the economy until it reaches its full potential, the productivity has to be at least maintained or even improved which means in the absence of robots, everybody has to get off their a$$ to work otherwise inflation will happen. But everybody is resigning and staying home thanks to Biden's generous payments and China is not willing to co-operate to be the factory anymore so there is nobody producing. When you have lots of money but nothing to spend on, people are going to bid up the prices of the things that they want to spend on and thus inflation. So instead of making everybody work, you just take away the available money by making everybody put their money in the bank. There, nothing to buy = no money to spend = no inflation. Until everybody realizes "Way a minute. I am too poor. I need to go out and make more money" and starts working, that's how it's going to be, double-digit interest rate.
There is no bear flag, no head, no shoulder, no neck ... It is ranging / moving sideway for months already. and it will continue to do so until the chart says otherwise. It might be a continuation pattern. It might be a reversal pattern. But one thing is clear; it is ranging / moving sideway in a choppy manner. related thread: ES,NQ,YM-Possible Inverse Head & Shoulder Daily Charts ______________
Daily and shorter. Good idea to keep an eye on the daily even if intraday trader... for "things" like what happened yesterday.
Good call. I was whipsawed yesterday but as soon the 2-hour went red I went short. This market is crazy volatile intraday. Looks like no one seems to no where it is headed short-term. The funniest thing on bubblevision is the talking heads saying that the rate hikes are all discounted in the market. Yesterday & today proves otherwise.
Well, they keep getting more aggressive. Last Fed meeting we were 25bps per meeting with maybe a 50, now the notion of multiple 75bps hikes is being floated. The reason it all feels like short term reaction is because that's what it is; they haven't even started pulling liquidity yet, but will soon. Once that starts we ought to see a clear downtrend develop in risk assets.