Bear put strategy help requested

Discussion in 'Options' started by Dgreenb, Feb 25, 2023.

  1. Dgreenb

    Dgreenb

    Hi. I have intermediate+ TA skills and would like to apply them to the following strategy for which I’d like advice from more experienced traders.

    (I’m going to speak in Bear terms realizing we have been in Bear market, yet have an ongoing battle on SPX at the 200 MA as the recent rally collapsed; price action in the week to come should give us an idea which way price will head).

    But basically I’d like to buy ATM Puts on the day a bear flag breaks to the downside. EXP 25-35 days out.

    I know how I’ll manage a profitable trade but am unsure about the 3 following scenarios and am hoping for advice. (Please note I’ve read a little about adjustments).

    What adjustments, if any, would you make for the following? Is there a point in which you make no adjustments and just write off your debit as a lost trade?

    Scenario 1:

    Price chops around my entry as they expected decline in price fails. Not profitable and being eroded by time decay. Ex: ATM Put at $100, a week later, still at ~$100

    Scenario 2:

    Price mildy reverses after entry. Ex: ATM Put at $100, a week later, price is at $105 and looking bullish.

    Scenario 3:

    Breakout to downside rapidly fails and reverses, Ex: ATM Put at $100, within days, dramatic reversal/gap up, price now at $110+ and rallying.


    Last question: Is ~30 days a good EXP for this style of trading.

    Also, this is for underlying with lots of liquidity.

    Many thanks in advance.