AUD falls back ahead of RBA meeting

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Wealthy Bucket, Jun 3, 2014.

  1. It’s been an interesting day in the US. The ISM had trouble making up its mind on what the manufacturing PMI was for May first announcing a disappointing 53.2, then raising that to 56.0 before settling on 55.4 essentially on expectations. As confusion breeds contempt in the markets, indices that sold off on the first number rebounded to trade slightly positive with both the Dow and S&P finishing at all-time closing highs. US traders now turn their focus toward Wednesday’s ADP payrolls for the next look at the May economy.

    Currency traders took the PMI revisions to indicate that the US economy has continued to strengthen into the spring. With US inflation creeping higher, an improving economy and job market may encourage the Fed to start raising interest rates earlier than current expectations of a first increase a year from now. This boosted USD which outperformed gold and major currencies on the day.

    With commodity prices falling, resource currencies have taken a hit today, with AUD outpacing NZD and CAD to the downside. This decline coming ahead of the RBA meeting suggests that some traders may be speculating a dovish shift at the central bank in the tone of the statement if not actual action. It’s also possible that with AUD having rallied since the last meeting and Governor Stevens having warned of intervention in the past, traders may be taking a more cautious approach.

    Tomorrow, European markets could be active with the last two big employment and inflation reports for the Eurozone ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting where traders are hoping ECB President Draghi will do something decisive to avert deflation and boost the Eurozone economy.