Traders please read the article below. I will tell you first hand, it goes against everything you hear from the so called gurus. The gurus say go into the overnight session FLAT. Data shows you should do just the opposite. BUY THE CASH CLOSE........ SELL THE CASH OPEN......... RETURNS ARE WELL DOCUMENTED. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html
Key point: If you had bought the SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993 and sold at the market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain would be 571 percent.
Thanks for the post. I agree with the general premise. That being said, this doesn't mean blindly holding overnight but when you have your analysis correct, it can be very profitable.
There are about 3 drops during these 25 years that probably are corresponding to the bear markets, then the strategy could probably be like this: Short sell (Entry) at the close and cover (Exit) next day when open, essentially the article suggested the market worked magic during the night, and doing what Warren Buffett suggested that you let the market makes money for you during sleep. To Rickshaw Man's credit, he has been advocating just doing that all the time!
This could be the basis for some strategy ideas. For example, perhaps fade a down move in after hours with ES and take advantage of the upward bias and exit at the open.
As the article correctly pointed out...and as you would have noted if you had read past the headline...such a system does not hold up when considering transaction costs. Transaction costs are a serious drag on returns for any strategy that trades frequently, and they're often ignored by traders (and academics) thinking they've found the holy grail.
Just like other general "canned" strategies... works best if you understand when it's less likely to work and is more risky.