There are statistics showing that the worst day for stocks is generally Monday, and the best is either like Wednesday or Friday I believe, depending on the exchange. Then there were the recent articles that I believe showed that 100% of the stock market's gains over the past few years would be realized by buying stocks at close and selling at the next opening, thus holding over night. Are there any statistics that show how stock performance tends to differ at different times during the day on average? Like breaking it down by hour and what not? Thanks!
One old saw I've heard is that the smart money buys/sells near the close. The weak (retail) hands buy/sell near the open. Have no idea if it's credible. I suppose you could take the trend of the first hour/last hour and see if there is any follow through the next day. Edit: Some of my best trades have been to buy a strong close and hold overnight.
Thanks Arnie! Things do seem to rise into the close it feels like to me. Seems weird there would not be studies on it. I wonder if there is historical data by the hour of the day?
Most of a U.S. stock’s daily range is usually by noon. If you want some more insight on this, try exporting various stocks and ETFs open, high, low, close, and volume of various timeframes into a spreadsheet. Note Forex and futures data will have different results from stocks. Ask yourself some questions and create the appropiate formulas to answer them. I would offer more specific information, but that would be going into the proprietary realm. One hint: Be aware of context.
It seems like there is typically more range in the morning, and a larger directional moves in the afternoon and into the Euro open. Some years the market tacks on most its gains after hours. The 'Traders Almanac' has the historical performance based on: presidential cycle, seasonal influence, month, days of month with fund 401k/IRA inflows, & the time of day cycles. There are clearly better times than others to make $ in the market, at least if you hold position longer than a day. Bear markets often have flatter opens with choppy conditions that give way to big late day sell offs. The amateurs are known to open the markets with the pros closing them. Day of Week Strongest days (In order) 1990- present SPX - Wed, Fri, Mon NDX - Wed, Thurs, Fri
I’ve noticed it as well. The Eurex open into the first hour of the London open (2h or so) is generally bullish. It’s when it’s not bullish that people should generally start worrying.
%% And for regular stock market; noon is 30 minutes more past 50% time. Weak, new hands tend to sell near open; but spea king of weak hands my hands are not usually weak early in morning, but when they gap it up early big trends;sell SEPT, maybe. NOT a prediction, but with Europe debt+ US student debt @ huge up, in US, the pattern could change.