Anyone taking Chinese Gov stats seriously? (PMI)

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Atikon, Mar 30, 2020.

  1. Atikon

    Atikon

    Hi Guys,

    so I've been told, back when I started out, to ignore the official numbers from the Chinese Gov and take the HSBC PMI Data to estimate Manufacturing Industries in China and thus global supply/Demand. Since the Chinese Government shut it down, what have you guys been using instead? I can't imagine taking these PMIs for granted when China is making them up in less stressfull times.
     
  2. IAlwaysWin

    IAlwaysWin

    I don't take anything that any Government says seriously. If they say one thing, I know the opposite is most likely the truth.
     
  3. gaussian

    gaussian

    China has historically never released accurate economic measures.

    Hedge funds probably use satellites. For us small fries it's probably best to not even try unless you know someone over there that would be willing to risk death to leak good info to you.
     
    Atikon likes this.
  4. pinetboltz

    pinetboltz

    lol, the markets dont trade much on fundamentals anyways

    i mean, even if they somehow managed to calculate the precise number to the 0.001% & reported it, why would it matter somehow to ppl aiming to make profits off it, if the market ignores it?

    let the govt bureaucrats manage the real economy however they want to

    those guys are going to make buy/sell decisions based on flows, esp. the fast money, literally no one truly has patience to "analyze" and wait for price convergence to fundamentals, bc (a) price never converges to fundamentals, (b) more money, more bonuses are made by doing whatever the guy next to you is doing, only better and faster

    some instances that point to a pattern over the years:

    1) they love squeezing out the weak hands, forcing capitulation, etc. some years ago there was a rumor of how a whale in the local markets was supposedly on the losing side of a short squeeze, and everyone piled on to get a piece of the action, and eventually the whale covered the short by liquidating the entire fund.

    2) the freakish volatility in ES, etc in recent weeks are like a vanilla day in local markets, and usually there are absolutely no headlines about the moves either. instead it's coordinated buying and selling from networks

    3) at one point the volume of iron futures contracts traded in 1 day exceeded the world annual production. lots of people got rich, lots got their entire net worths erased (with pledged collateral too). there was a meme that circulated sometime ago that showed a hobo next to a tycoon, and the tagline was "before / after he speculated in metals futures" - the price of base metals rose a lot that year
     
  5. maxinger

    maxinger

    based on my observation, China Economic data release don't normally impact the market much.

    Covid problem is a very big problem.
    so economic data has even lesser impact on the market.
     
    Atikon and Same Lazy Element like this.
  6. hafez50

    hafez50

    Those #'s might be real on inventory build but they sure aren't selling to anyone
     
    Atikon likes this.
  7. Nobert

    Nobert

    So much of fundamentals :
    (same happened in china)

     
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

  9. Nobert

    Nobert