Any way to anticipate implied volatility moving in opposite directions for near term / far term? (calendar spreads)
You're asking The Million Dollar crystal ball question Many have tried to develop or fine tune their's -- and many have failed,
Well, I wasn't expecting something that good but I was hoping for a "maybe sometimes" answer. That said, crystal balls are welcome.
I personally find it easier to trade/predict/manage the market on a daily basis ...rather then swing trading or on any other different time scale. Beyond a day, things just get mixed up in a tornado or, basically becomes gambling. to me.
There have been a couple times I noticed that non-performing screens actually did perform, for about 4 hours.
IMO: Backwardation of equities and their indexes is short-lived, so if in backwardation, it "normally" will tend back to contango. -- The converse is a crap shoot, unless you are aware of some event.
%% Good question; you could study the way a property insurance co makes money/billions Not just with their stocks + bonds, but with premiums; that way it could be profitable , even if you decide for or against, your original question.......
IV tend to move up/down weeks before earnings. Google Jeff Augen and his books about this event type trading.
Get Ready For Another Google Beat For The June Quarter Remember the firestorm of controversy that was unleashed in the middle part of March when the Google/YouTube ad-related issue was being used as the most recent doom and gloom scenario and every perma-bears and all the kindly uncles were up and about talking about how it would be best if everyone sell their Google shares? It got so intense and rabid for a while there that the shares dropped almost 5% in one week alone. Most Wall Street analysts defended the shares back then and recommended that investors use the 5% slide as an entry point which was the right recommendation in hindsight. On the flip side, you had a few on the sell side that downgraded the shares and/or lowered their estimates going forward and price targets too boot as well. Last week, Google/YouTube issued a post on its blog that clarified the ad change issue for creators and most importantly stated that "many advertisers have resumed their media campaigns on YouTube..." http://www.jaysomaney.com/article-details/Get-Ready-For-Another-Google-Beat-For-The-June-Quarter/587