Wondering if there's any research on stock price movement on the Monday following option-expirations (focused, perhaps, on Monthly options since much higher volume vs Weeklies). I want to know if it's common (or even possible) for market-makers (or anyone with big short positions) to apply up/down pressure on an underlying to ensure the option position they're short expires OTM. Felt a little tinfoil-hatty with this small-sample-size observation, but over the last 24 months, I've had several sizable long positions that I've watched expire near, but out of the money, only to see the price of the underlying move in (what would have been) my favor on Monday. Some googling turned up info re: ATM pinning on expiration-Fridays (SP clustering around strikes with significant volume) that at least made me feel like less of a conspiracy theorist; i.e. confirming that there IS a documented effect on stock prices based on open interest in its option chain. Couldn't find much, though, re: what has been observed the following Monday when, theoretically, the 'artificial' constraint would be lifted. (FWIW, many of the instances where I "missed out" on five-figure gains by 1 day were in thinly-traded underlyings, where I presumed it would theoretically be easier for a large actor to keep a SP inflated/depressed for a day or 2.)
Just my empirical observations over the years what happens is whatever helps "them" make money, and helps you lose money.
Yes, my low-sample-size observations would seem to suggest that I was observing the same; but I created the thread hoping to learn whether it was all in my head, or whether there was indeed research to suggest that big players are able to exert some semblance of control on a SP as expiration day approaches so as to mitigate potential losses.