in my previous thread i posted about predicting market moves which i tink was wrong definition to use was watching RockzFX dude on youtube and he is actually very good at explaining the basics in noob language.(not promoting him just sharing what i found that helped me) he said to anticipate market move which made alot more sense instead of predict. on that note (sip of english breakfast tea) even harder part is to formulate proper question for your problem if nothing is certain in the market not even patterns how the hell do i anticipate market if head and shoulders pattern for example could go up down sideways grow another shoulder or never complete at all.. so for example when i as a new trader look at a head and shoulders pattern it forms into a reasonably normal pattern ok im still following i know whats happening then boom one shoulder is lower than other or the head is too big or too small or too pointy or shoulders look like 1980s businesswomen suit shoulder suddenly does something unexpected. and im out of the game because i dont know whats happening past that break of pattern.. thats where better traders seem to have an upper hand. they have a much better idea of what caused that move and where it might go next. and that unfortunately is almost never gets covered in youtube videos. so what im trying to figure out where do i learn that part, what to anticipate when patterns break i think this is my main bottleneck at the moment srry for long ass post. this forum is all i got as far as my mentorship goes
Perhaps, that is where better experience and market intuition comes to play which is something that can't really be passed on? Your threads on here always gives me a raised eyebrow.
That's where learning to program comes into play. You can end up with 50 stats then develop rules better than backtesting by hand. Those who have spent hundreds of hours learning H&S patterns learn when not to trade these patterns and when not to take end of trend trades. As far as sharing stats, really doubt most will, and those who will, you have to ask how many decades they tested. One size does not fit all, so as prices have ridden to all time highs, what worked before for H&S, stats change unless one develops percentage changes to rules that have parameters like swing lengths. We all predict on every trade unless you not using protective stops and making a stand. Once you have well defined rules, you can get losing % way down but your risk management comes into play, but many traders don't have well back tested rules on risk.
i dont really care if im raising eyebrows im trying to learn cant afford a mentor and its obvious pro traders dont teach for free so im here asking "stupid questions"
WELL IN THAT CASE you are barking up the wrong tree. all you have to see is in what direction the market is going.....no one can predict/anticipate the future...[correctly! ] not patterns, not fib, not Elliot wave, not Demark, not indicators.....not order flow not volume if you go on that road it does not lead to the promised land. of course you can try. i can give a list of 20 books and after you read that, i will ask you, one question:where is your ass? and i will bet, that you will be so confused, that you will not know i read 40 books and then i spent 14 years trying to clean all that shit out of my head if you want to see in what direction a car is going, you do not have to know what material the car is made of, the engine cc, whether it runs on petrol, diesel, gas ,water or hot air, what bhp the engine power is....whether front wheel drive or back wheel drive..all it's internals. all you need to know what direction it is going is a pair of eyes .you can think and say NO it cant be that simple......and it is not simple.....if you want to go to New York the road to NewYORK is marked and clear but you still have to travel on that road...it will take time effort...but you will get there. there are none so bankrupt as those who will not see. do not analyse ... observe
After the head and shoulder formation, what is going to happen next? That is a simple question. After head and shoulder formation, the market can - form even more heads and shoulders - go up - go down <<< this is the most common answer by the professional writers So do not assume / anticipate /predict the price will go down.
so why search for head and shoulders....why search for shit which does not tell you anything? that is what i said: patterns do not tell you anything more than that which can see by just eyeballing chart
Try to learn about market structure and context. Patterns only work within the right context (trading range, trending, accumulation/distribution, etc). Also think in terms of probability. Even the best pattern/context will fail sometimes so risk management is key. Don't trust Youtube's gurus. Don't keep looking for new strategies/patterns. Understand the context.