Another month? Computer modelers estimate how much longer coronavirus shutdowns should last https://www.geekwire.com/2020/anoth...ers-estimate-long-coronavirus-shutdowns-last/ The University of Washington epidemiologists who set up a widely watched model projecting the future course of the coronavirus outbreak have translated those projections into suggested time frames for loosening strict shelter-at-home orders across the country. For Washington state, that time frame is the week of May 18, which is two weeks longer than the current expiration date for Gov. Jay Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order. Based on the current projections from UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, four states — Montana, Vermont, West Virginia and Hawaii — could loosen their restrictions as early as the week of May 4. Other states, ranging from Massachusetts and North Dakota to Arizona, may have to wait until the week of June 8 or later. Those projected dates could shift, of course, depending on how the institute tweaks its models, which it’s done repeatedly over the past month. And in the end, it’s up to the nation’s governors, not researchers, to determine how strict their social distancing policies are. The White House has been pressing governors to start “opening” some states by May 1 as part of a three-phase process. Some states, such as Washington, Oregon and California, have agreed to coordinate their policies on easing restrictions. (More at above url)
From the article: IHME based its projections for easing restrictions on the estimated time frame for seeing the COVID-19 infection rate fall below one new infection per million residents in a given state. Based off this metric, the virus would have to be nearly eradicated before reopening the economy. I don't think that's a realistic expectation.
& right after that statement: The institute said that’s “a conservative estimate of the number of infections each location could reasonably try to identify via active case detection and contact tracing in order to prevent COVID-19 resurgence.”
I understand what they're saying. In a perfect world we would wait until there were just a handful of cases nationwide where we could contract trace them prior to reopening the economy. I don't think that's a realistic expectation though. Initial antibody tests are suggesting that the virus is much more prevalent than tests show. A study out of Massachusetts showed that nearly 1/3 of the random people they tested had antibodies for the virus. There's no way that we'll get this down to the point of contract tracing every case prior to reopening the economy. I expect a spike in cases as states start to reopen their economies. I think it's unavoidable as people start to move around again. But hopefully it will be manageable. At least the models are showing that we're moving past the threat of overwhelming our healthcare system. This could've been catastrophic if we would've chose to do nothing.