an Option metric for " Likely " Profit after X move .....

Discussion in 'Options' started by md2324, Feb 18, 2016.

  1. md2324

    md2324

    in the underlying Stock ?

    I am looking for a way , that I can get a rough estimate as to what an outright Call or Put that I buy , will be worth when the stock moves X amount in my favor ( per $1 move the stock moves, $3 move, $5, $10, $50, etc. )

    I know that Time value is a factor in this, but I am basing this on buying OTM options ( 6 months out till expiration minimum, with the average being 1 year or more out to expiration )

    These Options will be purchased way out of the money ...... with the average option costing between ( .25 - $3 ) ..... depending on the Stock and stock price of course, being a factor as to how much I can expect to pay for these otm options

    And lastly , this will also assume that the stocks moves in my favor rather quickly ( although I know realistically this certainly does not happen all of the time )
    These purchased Way OTM options are more of a Lottery play/trade you could say , but when I am expecting a BIG move in a stock , and for that move to " Hopefully " occur soon after I buy the options , I would like to have an Idea as to what my .50 purchased Calls for example will be worth, if the stock moves $5 in price , and does so with at least 4 months left till expiration

    Side Note ( we will also assume that the Options we trade, have good Volume and O.I , as well as tight spreads between the bid x ask )

    EXAMPLE:
    Lets say stock XYZ is trading for $60 a share

    We expect XYZ to make a BIG move to the upside ( from technical analysis ).... a Break Out trade

    We buy the $70 otm calls with 8 months till expiration for $1

    Now, do we expect it to get to $70 .... Likely not, but it's not impossible, as this stock has traded as high as $70 in the past

    So if XYZ moves $6 with 3 months left till expiration, what can we then expect are $1 call to now be worth ...... $7 ish ?

    Hopefully my question(s) make sense :)

    Thank you for any and all help and input
     
  2. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    That's already provided for you in the first order condition of the option itself, known as delta.
     
    md2324 likes this.
  3. botpro

    botpro

    You just need an options calculator.
    There are many on the web.
    If you can use a C++ commandline tool, then just compile the following C++ code I had posted here:
    http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?attachments/bsm_v100c-zip.161202/
    Some comments on it you can can find here:
    http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...es-merton-options-pricing-engine-in-c.297419/
    If you need a tool with bells and whistles and possibly with a GUI, and suited exactly for your requirements
    then IMO it's best to code it yourself, or simply let it do by a programmer.

    The following table has been created with an extended version of the code (year = 252 trading days):
    Code:
    Spot=60.000 Strike=70.00 ExpDays=63 HoldDays=10 IRpct=0.000000% VolaPctS=30.00000%  -->  Call=0.766748  Put=10.766748
    
    Day 0  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(0 days)    : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%( 61.14)     -1SD=-1.87%( 58.88)     C@+1SD=0.9808(27.9%)     C@-1SD=0.5925(-22.7%)     P@+1SD=9.8362(-8.6%)     P@-1SD=11.7158(8.8%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.37355      6.37355     209.56030%    -40.80342%
            9.00%      65.40000       2.15511      6.75511     181.07139%    -37.25953%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.95029      7.15029     154.35938%    -33.58909%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.75889      7.55889     129.39628%    -29.79411%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.58063      7.98063     106.14770%    -25.87703%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.41521      8.41521      84.57310%    -21.84074%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.26227      8.86227      64.62603%    -17.68855%
            3.00%      61.80000       1.12140      9.32140      46.25452%    -13.42415%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.99218      9.79218      29.40148%     -9.05162%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.87413     10.27413      14.00522%     -4.57534%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.76675     10.76675       0.00000%      0.00000%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.66950     11.26950     -12.68337%      4.66947%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.58183     11.78183     -24.11689%      9.42796%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.50318     12.30318     -34.37466%     14.27017%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.43297     12.83297     -43.53221%     19.19073%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.37060     13.37060     -51.66580%     24.18422%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.31550     13.91550     -58.85172%     29.24519%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.26709     14.46709     -65.16561%     34.36826%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.22480     15.02480     -70.68181%     39.54814%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.18806     15.58806     -75.47281%     44.77967%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.15635     16.15635     -79.60863%     50.05785%
    
    Day 1  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(1 days)    : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%( 61.14)     -1SD=-1.87%( 58.88)     C@+1SD=0.9602(25.2%)     C@-1SD=0.5769(-24.8%)     P@+1SD=9.8155(-8.8%)     P@-1SD=11.7002(8.7%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.34364      6.34364     205.65964%    -41.08120%
            9.00%      65.40000       2.12610      6.72610     177.28793%    -37.52896%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.92227      7.12227     150.70451%    -33.84937%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.73193      7.53193     125.88034%    -30.04450%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.55481      7.95481     102.77992%    -26.11687%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.39058      8.39058      81.36145%    -22.06946%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.23889      8.83889      61.57714%    -17.90567%
            3.00%      61.80000       1.09931      9.29931      43.37361%    -13.62931%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.97141      9.77141      26.69233%     -9.24455%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.85469     10.25469      11.47012%     -4.75588%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.74865     10.74865      -2.36022%     -0.16808%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.65274     11.25274     -14.86933%      4.51380%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.56639     11.76639     -26.13061%      9.28455%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.48904     12.28904     -36.21947%     14.13879%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.42008     12.82008     -45.21270%     19.07106%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.35893     13.35893     -53.18765%     24.07584%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.30500     13.90500     -60.22161%     29.14763%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.25770     14.45770     -66.39106%     34.28099%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.21644     15.01644     -71.77106%     39.47057%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.18069     15.58069     -76.43461%     44.71117%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.14988     16.14988     -80.45213%     49.99778%
    
    Day 2  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(2 days)    : Vola=2.67%     +1SD=2.71%( 61.63)     -1SD=-2.64%( 58.42)     C@+1SD=1.0391(35.5%)     C@-1SD=0.5015(-34.6%)     P@+1SD=9.4139(-12.6%)     P@-1SD=12.0839(12.2%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.31352      6.31352     201.73218%    -41.36089%
            9.00%      65.40000       2.09690      6.69690     173.48008%    -37.80014%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.89408      7.09408     147.02785%    -34.11120%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.70483      7.50483     122.34542%    -30.29623%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.52886      7.92886      99.39607%    -26.35785%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.36586      8.36586      78.13671%    -22.29911%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.21543      8.81543      58.51817%    -18.12352%
            3.00%      61.80000       1.07717      9.27717      40.48562%    -13.83498%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.95061      9.75061      23.97902%     -9.43777%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.83525     10.23525       8.93367%     -4.93651%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.73056     10.73056      -4.71914%     -0.33607%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.63601     11.23601     -17.05155%      4.35840%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.55100     11.75100     -28.13836%      9.14157%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.47495     12.27495     -38.05637%     14.00798%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.40727     12.80727     -46.88357%     18.95207%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.34735     13.34735     -54.69849%     23.96825%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.29459     13.89459     -61.57938%     29.05094%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.24840     14.44840     -67.60359%     34.19464%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.20820     15.00820     -72.84684%     39.39396%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.17342     15.57342     -77.38269%     44.64366%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.14352     16.14352     -81.28189%     49.93869%
    
    Day 3  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(3 days)    : Vola=3.27%     +1SD=3.33%( 62.00)     -1SD=-3.22%( 58.07)     C@+1SD=1.0985(43.3%)     C@-1SD=0.4456(-41.9%)     P@+1SD=9.1020(-15.5%)     P@-1SD=12.3778(15.0%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.28320      6.28320     197.77737%    -41.64253%
            9.00%      65.40000       2.06752      6.66752     169.64738%    -38.07308%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.86572      7.06572     143.32908%    -34.37461%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.67758      7.47758     118.79126%    -30.54934%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.50280      7.90280      95.99600%    -26.59998%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.34103      8.34103      74.89884%    -22.52969%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.19190      8.79190      55.44919%    -18.34207%
            3.00%      61.80000       1.05497      9.25497      37.59069%    -14.04114%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.92977      9.72977      21.26177%     -9.63128%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.81579     10.21579       6.39616%     -5.11721%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.71249     10.71249      -7.07642%     -0.50394%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.61931     11.21931     -19.22961%      4.20329%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.53565     11.73565     -30.13971%      8.99904%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.46093     12.26093     -39.88486%     13.87776%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.39454     12.79454     -48.54435%     18.83380%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.33585     13.33585     -56.19782%     23.86147%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.28428     13.88428     -62.92456%     28.95514%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.23920     14.43920     -68.80272%     34.10925%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.20005     15.00005     -73.90874%     39.31834%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.16626     15.56626     -78.31666%     44.57714%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.13727     16.13727     -82.09758%     49.88060%
    
    Day 4  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(4 days)    : Vola=3.78%     +1SD=3.85%( 62.31)     -1SD=-3.71%( 57.77)     C@+1SD=1.1475(49.7%)     C@-1SD=0.4000(-47.8%)     P@+1SD=8.8363(-17.9%)     P@-1SD=12.6255(17.3%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.25266      6.25266     193.79465%    -41.92616%
            9.00%      65.40000       2.03793      6.63793     165.78937%    -38.34783%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.83719      7.03719     139.60781%    -34.63962%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.65018      7.45018     115.21762%    -30.80384%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.47660      7.87660      92.57956%    -26.84328%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.31611      8.31611      71.64780%    -22.76121%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.16830      8.76830      52.37024%    -18.56134%
            3.00%      61.80000       1.03272      9.23272      34.68898%    -14.24778%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.90891      9.70891      18.54083%     -9.82505%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.79633     10.19633       3.85792%     -5.29797%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.69443     10.69443      -9.43166%     -0.67167%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.60264     11.20264     -21.40309%      4.04850%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.52036     11.72036     -32.13417%      8.85701%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.44698     12.24698     -41.70446%     13.74818%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.38188     12.78188     -50.19452%     18.71628%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.32445     13.32445     -57.68516%     23.75555%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.27406     13.87406     -64.25665%     28.86028%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.23012     14.43012     -69.98802%     34.02484%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.19202     14.99202     -74.95634%     39.24373%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.15921     15.55921     -79.23615%     44.51166%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.13112     16.13112     -82.89888%     49.82354%
    
    Day 5  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(5 days)    : Vola=4.23%     +1SD=4.32%( 62.59)     -1SD=-4.14%( 57.52)     C@+1SD=1.1896(55.1%)     C@-1SD=0.3611(-52.9%)     P@+1SD=8.5998(-20.1%)     P@-1SD=12.8438(19.3%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.22191      6.22191     189.78344%    -42.21182%
            9.00%      65.40000       2.00816      6.60816     161.90558%    -38.62441%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.80848      7.00848     135.86369%    -34.90625%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.62262      7.42262     111.62422%    -31.05974%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.45028      7.85028      89.14661%    -27.08776%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.29108      8.29108      68.38355%    -22.99367%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.14461      8.74461      49.28141%    -18.78131%
            3.00%      61.80000       1.01043      9.21043      31.78066%    -14.45490%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.88802      9.68802      15.81646%    -10.01907%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.77686     10.17686       1.31927%     -5.47876%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.67639     10.67639     -11.78445%     -0.83922%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.58601     11.18601     -23.57152%      3.89408%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.50512     11.70512     -34.12125%      8.71550%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.43310     12.23310     -43.51463%     13.61927%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.36932     12.76932     -51.83355%     18.59956%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.31314     13.31314     -59.15997%     23.65052%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.26395     13.86395     -65.57516%     28.76638%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.22114     14.42114     -71.15899%     33.94145%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.18410     14.98410     -75.98919%     39.17018%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.15227     15.55227     -80.14076%     44.44724%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.12509     16.12509     -83.68543%     49.76752%
    
    Day 6  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(6 days)    : Vola=4.63%     +1SD=4.74%( 62.84)     -1SD=-4.52%( 57.29)     C@+1SD=1.2267(60.0%)     C@-1SD=0.3272(-57.3%)     P@+1SD=8.3840(-22.1%)     P@-1SD=13.0413(21.1%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.19093      6.19093     185.74315%    -42.49954%
            9.00%      65.40000       1.97817      6.57817     157.99551%    -38.90286%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.77959      6.97959     132.09634%    -35.17454%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.59492      7.39492     108.01082%    -31.31707%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.42383      7.82383      85.69700%    -27.33342%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.26595      8.26595      65.10607%    -23.22708%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.12085      8.72085      46.18277%    -19.00197%
            3.00%      61.80000       0.98808      9.18808      28.86592%    -14.66247%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.86711      9.66711      13.08895%    -10.21330%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.75740     10.15740      -1.21939%     -5.65955%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.65837     10.65837     -14.13436%     -1.00657%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.56943     11.16943     -25.73441%      3.74005%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.48995     11.68995     -36.10042%      8.57456%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.41930     12.21930     -45.31485%     13.49107%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.35684     12.75684     -53.46090%     18.48367%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.30193     13.30193     -60.62171%     23.54643%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.25395     13.85395     -66.87957%     28.67349%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.21227     14.41227     -72.31515%     33.85911%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.17630     14.97630     -77.00684%     39.09771%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.14545     15.54545     -81.03010%     44.38391%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.11918     16.11918     -84.45690%     49.71258%
    
    Day 7  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(7 days)    : Vola=5.00%     +1SD=5.13%( 63.08)     -1SD=-4.88%( 57.07)     C@+1SD=1.2599(64.3%)     C@-1SD=0.2970(-61.3%)     P@+1SD=8.1836(-24.0%)     P@-1SD=13.2233(22.8%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.15972      6.15972     181.67315%    -42.78938%
            9.00%      65.40000       1.94799      6.54799     154.05866%    -39.18322%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.75053      6.95053     128.30537%    -35.44451%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.56706      7.36706     104.37715%    -31.57583%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.39725      7.79725      82.23060%    -27.58028%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.24072      8.24072      61.81534%    -23.46142%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.09702      8.69702      43.07444%    -19.22333%
            3.00%      61.80000       0.96568      9.16568      25.94497%    -14.87048%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.84617      9.64617      10.35861%    -10.40774%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.73794     10.13794      -3.75769%     -5.84032%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.64038     10.64038     -16.48093%     -1.17368%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.55289     11.15289     -27.89125%      3.58645%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.47484     11.67484     -38.07114%      8.43421%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.40557     12.20557     -47.10453%     13.36362%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.34445     12.74445     -55.07598%     18.36865%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.29083     13.29083     -62.06981%     23.44330%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.24406     13.84406     -68.16932%     28.58164%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.20353     14.40353     -73.45600%     33.77787%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.16862     14.96862     -78.00885%     39.02635%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.13875     15.53875     -81.90376%     44.32169%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.11338     16.11338     -85.21294%     49.65874%
    
    Day 8  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(8 days)    : Vola=5.35%     +1SD=5.49%( 63.29)     -1SD=-5.20%( 56.88)     C@+1SD=1.2899(68.2%)     C@-1SD=0.2700(-64.8%)     P@+1SD=7.9955(-25.7%)     P@-1SD=13.3929(24.4%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.12828      6.12828     177.57281%    -43.08139%
            9.00%      65.40000       1.91759      6.51759     150.09451%    -39.46553%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.72128      6.92128     124.49039%    -35.71620%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.53904      7.33904     100.72295%    -31.83607%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.37054      7.77054      78.74729%    -27.82834%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.21538      8.21538      58.51137%    -23.69671%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.07311      8.67311      39.95653%    -19.44537%
            3.00%      61.80000       0.94324      9.14324      23.01806%    -15.07892%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.82522      9.62522       7.62577%    -10.60236%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.71848     10.11848      -6.29520%     -6.02102%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.62242     10.62242     -18.82366%     -1.34052%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.53641     11.13641     -30.04149%      3.43333%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.45980     11.65980     -40.03280%      8.29451%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.39194     12.19194     -48.88307%     13.23696%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.33217     12.73217     -56.67819%     18.25455%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.27983     13.27983     -63.50369%     23.34119%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.23429     13.83429     -69.44386%     28.49088%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.19490     14.39490     -74.58102%     33.69775%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.16106     14.96106     -78.99475%     38.95614%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.13218     15.53218     -82.76134%     44.26062%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.10770     16.10770     -85.95320%     49.60603%
    
    Day 9  : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(9 days)    : Vola=5.67%     +1SD=5.83%( 63.50)     -1SD=-5.51%( 56.69)     C@+1SD=1.3171(71.8%)     C@-1SD=0.2455(-68.0%)     P@+1SD=7.8172(-27.4%)     P@-1SD=13.5525(25.9%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.09661      6.09661     173.44146%    -43.37560%
            9.00%      65.40000       1.88699      6.48699     146.10252%    -39.74981%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.69184      6.89184     120.65099%    -35.98962%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.51086      7.31086      97.04797%    -32.09778%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.34370      7.74370      75.24693%    -28.07761%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.18995      8.18995      55.19416%    -23.93295%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.04913      8.64913      36.82919%    -19.66808%
            3.00%      61.80000       0.92075      9.12075      20.08543%    -15.28777%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.80425      9.60425       4.89080%    -10.79713%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.69903     10.09903      -8.83147%     -6.20164%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.60449     10.60449     -21.16202%     -1.50704%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.51997     11.11997     -32.18454%      3.28071%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.44483     11.64483     -41.98481%      8.15550%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.37839     12.17839     -50.64983%     13.11114%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.31999     12.71999     -58.26690%     18.14141%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.26895     13.26895     -64.92273%     23.24013%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.22464     13.82464     -70.70262%     28.40123%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.18640     14.38640     -75.68966%     33.61880%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.15363     14.95363     -79.96404%     38.88711%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.12573     15.52573     -83.60240%     44.20072%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.10215     16.10215     -86.67733%     49.55446%
    
    Day 10 : Annual        : Vola=30.00%     +1SD=34.99%     -1SD=-25.92%
             Daily        : Vola=1.89%     +1SD=1.91%     -1SD=-1.87%
             Period(10 days)    : Vola=5.98%     +1SD=6.16%( 63.69)     -1SD=-5.80%( 56.52)     C@+1SD=1.3421(75.0%)     C@-1SD=0.2232(-70.9%)     P@+1SD=7.6471(-29.0%)     P@-1SD=13.7038(27.3%)
       deltaSpot%        spot         call         put           cprm0PL%      pprm0PL%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           10.00%      66.00000       2.06469      6.06469     169.27842%    -43.67207%
            9.00%      65.40000       1.85616      6.45616     142.08215%    -40.03612%
            8.00%      64.80000       1.66221      6.86221     116.78678%    -36.26480%
            7.00%      64.20000       1.48252      7.28252      93.35192%    -32.36099%
            6.00%      63.60000       1.31673      7.71673      71.72941%    -28.32811%
            5.00%      63.00000       1.16441      8.16441      51.86374%    -24.17012%
            4.00%      62.40000       1.02508      8.62508      33.69258%    -19.89146%
            3.00%      61.80000       0.89822      9.09822      17.14737%    -15.49700%
            2.00%      61.20000       0.78326      9.58326       2.15408%    -10.99203%
            1.00%      60.60000       0.67960     10.07960     -11.36601%     -6.38214%
            0.00%      60.00000       0.58660     10.58660     -23.49547%     -1.67322%
           -1.00%      59.40000       0.50360     11.10360     -34.31981%      3.12865%
           -2.00%      58.80000       0.42994     11.62994     -43.92652%      8.01722%
           -3.00%      58.20000       0.36494     12.16494     -52.40417%     12.98621%
           -4.00%      57.60000       0.30791     12.70791     -59.84146%     18.02928%
           -5.00%      57.00000       0.25819     13.25819     -66.32631%     23.14018%
           -6.00%      56.40000       0.21511     13.81511     -71.94499%     28.31276%
           -7.00%      55.80000       0.17803     14.37803     -76.78139%     33.54105%
           -8.00%      55.20000       0.14632     14.94632     -80.91625%     38.81930%
           -9.00%      54.60000       0.11941     15.51941     -84.42654%     44.14203%
          -10.00%      54.00000       0.09673     16.09673     -87.38497%     49.50406%
    
    
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2016
    md2324 likes this.
  4. destriero

    destriero

    It's recursive. Buy a book from amazon. Natenberg, Baird, McMillan, etc.
     
    md2324 and cvds16 like this.
  5. md2324

    md2324

    Thank you for all of the great information and Links to calculators/tools

    Maverick74 ,
    That's a good point with using the Delta

    So if I understand it correctly ..... if a $1 option has a Delta of .20
    This means that for each $1 that the stock moves, then we will theoretically make .20 cents ?

    So then , the only reason it seems that someone would buy this way OTM options , is not for a BIG profit , but for a high ROI ?

     
  6. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    The ONLY reason to ever buy an option is because you believe the expected net present value is greater then zero. Otherwise some other utility has to be derived from the ENPV being negative such that owning this option increases the ENPV of another holding.
     
    md2324 likes this.
  7. Shay

    Shay

    just an example you can see with TOS ThinkBack :
    JPM
    on 24/02/2015
    the price was 60.82
    you could buy the 70 call Sep15 (206 days) in 0.58
    on 18/05/2015 the price was 66.42
    and you could sell your call at 0.97

    Shay
     
    md2324 likes this.
  8. md2324

    md2324

    Tank you for the real world example Shay

    I'll have to pull up ThinkBack on my TorS platform and look at your example
     
  9. destriero

    destriero


    What if the option is 200 ITM?
     
    #10     Feb 18, 2016
    md2324 likes this.