Amazon looks bearish in the short term

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by nxt7, Jun 25, 2020.

  1. nxt7

    nxt7

    Amazon's price has practically been parabolic since 2008, and many bears have been crushed by bear trap after bear trap.

    But this time, I think the bears may have it. But rewarded with just a short and sharp pullback, nothing too major.

    I've used Elliott Wave Theory in this analysis here. Basically, the crux of my hypothesis is that we are currently at a Wave (III) top, and a Wave (IV) dip is imminent in the short term. However just to clarify, I am still bullish long term as a Wave (V) has yet to develop.

    Looking at the chart below, it is quite rare for a Wave -v- forming inside of a major Wave (v) and (III), all aligning at the right Fibonacci projections, but thats what seems to be happening here. Wave (III) was also a super extended rally, and I expect it to continue in the long term with a Wave (V).

    But as Wave (II) was a rather shallow 23.6% correction, it is expected that Wave (IV) will be deep, supported by the developments of the internal Wave -v- and (v).

    Therefore, I have identified a projection cluster here for Amazon between 1630 - 1440 for the Wave (IV) down in the short term (3 months). Amazon's close price was 2734 yesterday (24th June), so the Wave (IV) decline could be pretty ugly in the short term (about -40%).

    2020-06-25 Amazon Short term.PNG
     
  2. maxinger

    maxinger

    No matter how many lines you draw, no matter what elliott / idiot said, no matter how many waves there are, amzn simply looks bullish

    Theoritical and actual things are always different.

    Don't treat Elliott as God.
    Always do your own analysis.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
    Spooz Top 2, Overnight and Snuskpelle like this.
  3. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Then sell.
     
    jl1575 likes this.
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    You are forgetting the a, b, c waves between wave 3 and 4, which also have waves I,ii,iii,iv,v between waves a and b within wave 3ac between wave 1a,2a, 3a and wave 1aba and ii bba.

    Elliot wave theory is trash. The waves fit the narrative, and E-Wave theory has zero predictability, especially when combined with fibbo.
     
  5. I agree the market is deeply overbought and given how bearish this chart of AMZN looks, AMZN could be a good candidate to speculate on a market crash. Just me personally, I would look at more indicators and multiple time frames before making a decision (definitely volume too), but just looking at this snapshot, I see that AMZN could be a way to profit off a decline. Thanks for sharing.
     
  6. Or it will just repeat historical RSI patterns and just break new highs LOL.
     
  7. If/when a crash happens FAANGM will be the last ones to go.
    Look back at March, they barely dropped and immediately rocketed back to highs.

    Why fight the strongest stocks in the market short?? There’s easier ways to make money
     
    ElCubano and Actuarial_Fun like this.
  8. That's a great point. Appreciate the insight.
     
  9. nxt7

    nxt7

    Next few weeks is critical