I guess during hot bull markets you can expect this ....but damn these indicators are simply red hottttt....what will happen is they will continue to get more extreme and everyone will keep holding out for more historic highs. Everyone will cheer for a third year in a row for 20% gains. Shiller The Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 on July 27, 2025, was 38.5. It is currently 42.3% higher than the recent 20-year average of 27. The implied future annual return based on this Shiller PE is 1.9%. The Shiller P/E ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), is a valuation measure usually applied to broad stock market indexes like the S&P 500. It uses average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. Here's a more detailed breakdown: The Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 38.5 This is significantly higher than the recent 20-year average of 27. The recent 20-year low for the Shiller PE is 13.3. The recent 20-year high is 38.6. The high Shiller P/E suggests a lower expected future return on investments. The S&P 500 is currently at 6388.64.The standard, or "regular," P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 29.5 Buffet indicator Warren Buffett Indicator jumps to most expensive stock market valuation in history US stock valuations hit record highs as the Buffett Indicator soars to 212% of GDP, surpassing the Dot-Com and 2008 peaks. Berkshire Hathaway exits major financial positions, including Citigroup and Bank of America, signaling Buffett’s cautious stance. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records ahead of a key Fed meeting, with markets eyeing potential rate cuts later this year. The US stock market’s current valuation has surpassed even the peaks seen during the Dot-Com Bubble and the 2008 Financial Crisis, according to the so-called “Warren Buffett Indicator.” The metric compares the total market capitalization of US stocks to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which surged to 212%, its highest level in history
there is never an overbought condition, however there is a overextended situation depends on the timeframe.
All of those hindsight, past, theory, academic indicators and invented tools are basically useless in actually trading and anticipating market movement. They just sound intelligent to fill news daily content space.
But there always seems to be an oversold indicator days after a few drops on the spy.... Quite fascinating if I must say.
So it only works on sell offs and not on over extended rallies.... I always laugh when all of the articles and interviews give forecasts of unlimited upside .....then once markets drop say 6% or 8% or 15% these are the same guys after the fact the market has sold off saying yea the markets were due for a sell off....never during the upswing will they say take some profits off the table...nope... but they will scream after the sell off that a market was due for a sizeable drop Gotta love those guys.....
So... buy, I guess? I thought you guys were traders. Who cares where the market is, so long as it is open there is opportunity?
One of the funniest financial blogs I used to read was called Ponzi World and the subtitle was BTATFH. The name was meant as sarcasm since the author was a permabear. In his personal holdings he said to buy SH which was the short term t-bill ETF. BTATFH == Buy The All Time Fucking High