http://www.reuters.com/article/us-archerdaniels-results-ethanol-idUSKCN0VC0CC http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=adm Fellow traveler: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PEIX+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} It looks like this will not be a good year for ADM... but remember when we all thought the ethanol plants were such a great investment before energy got so cheap. Trade: With ADM at 32.36 Jan '17 40/45 bear call spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/445 = 12.4% in 352 days or 12.8% annualized Prob = 77% Expectation = .77(55) - .14(445) - .09(222) = 42.35 - 62.3 - 20.0 = -40 Price............ Profit / Loss....... ROM % 25.00.................. 55.00............... 12.40% 30.00.................. 55.00............... 12.40% 35.00.................. 55.00............... 12.40% 40.00.................. 55.00............... 12.40% 40.55.................... 0.00................. 0.00% 43.33................ (277.90)............ -55.58% 45.00................ (445.00)............ -87.60% 50.00................ (445.00)............ -87.60% 55.55................ (445.00)............ -87.60%