Abnormal Skew in Delta/Prob of OTM

I've been trading Options again and I'm getting unreal Delta to OTM Probability Ratios.

Call Side 0.3 Delta =0.85% OTM Probability
Put Side 0.3 Delta =0.55% OTM Probability

Both Sides had the same Implied Volatility.

How is this even possible? Is it because one Side gets purchased more? Shouldn't there be a Scew in IV too?

If this persists, Delta is useless to use in Backtesting.

EDIT: Ticker was AXSM

 

Where and how are you coming up with the % probability of OTM ??

Doesn't make sense..

30 Delta options should have an apx 70% OTM ..

What percent of Spot options are you comparing??

 

Hi the Ticker was AXSM and I saw it last week in TOS.

 

I

It's still at 58% for a 0.3 delta

 

Are you looking at Probability of Touch??

That's apx 2x Delta..

Edit..Saw your screen shot...Ill look at the Prob ITM calculation

 

I'm looking at Probability OTM and Delta Column on the Strikes I marked in the Screenshot. Delta should be equal to ITM and 1-Delta=OTM Probability. There is no Prob of Touch illustrated in that Screenshot acc to what I've read on TDA

https://www.google.com/amp/s/tickertape.tdameritrade.com/amp/trading/option-probability-delta-14981

 

From a TOS article..They seem to have their own home brew voodoo..

The calculations may be slightly different from the option’s delta, but the two readings are generally within a couple percentage points of each other. Either reading can be used to help define the trade's risk.

 

Yeah usually it will be between 2-3% not 15%

 

Ild look at high vol stocks vs low vol stocks to see if they make some sort of an adjustment.

 

Imo option spreads have widened too far, could be the factor you are missing