AAPL: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-iphone-slowdown-spells-doom-for-apple-2016-01-07 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...t-jan-quarter-iphone-6s-production-2016-01-05 http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo...wagon/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With AAPL at 96.96 Oct 130/135 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 285 days or 12.7% annualized Prob = 84% Expectation = .84(45)-.13(455) -.03(227) = 37.8 - 59.15 - 6.81 = -28.16 Price............Profit / Loss.........ROM % 70.00............... 45.00............ 9.90% 90.00............... 45.00............ 9.90% 100.00............. 45.00............ 9.90% 120.00............. 45.00............ 9.90% 130.00............. 45.00............ 9.90% 130.45.............. 0.00............. 0.00% 135.00........... (455.00)......... -90.10% 140.00........... (455.00)......... -90.10% 150.00........... (455.00)......... -90.10%