AA

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...nings-revenue-beat/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoa-tops-street-2q-forecasts-201051321.html

http://www.investors.com/news/alcoa...-companies/?ven=YahooCP&src=AURLLED&ven=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AA+Interactive#{"allowChartStacking":true}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aa

Trade#1:
With AA at 10.14
Oct 10/12//10/8 condor for a net debit of $133

Price..... Profit / Loss..... ROI %
6.00............ 67.00............ 50.38%
7.73............ 67.00............ 50.38%
8.00............ 67.00............ 50.38%
8.67.............. 0.00............. 0.00%
10.00...........(133)..............-100%
11.33............ 0.00............. 0.00%
12.00.......... 67.00............. 50.38%
13.18.......... 67.00............. 50.38%
15.00.......... 67.00............. 50.38%

a 2 point move in either direction will make money.

Trade #2:
Oct 10/12 bull call spread for a net debit of $68

Price............. Profit / Loss........... ROI %
7.50................... (68.00)............. -100.00%
8.94................... (68.00)............. -100.00%
10.00................. (68.00)............. -100.00%
10.45................. (22.50)............... -33.09%
10.68.................... 0.00................... 0.00%
11.97................. 129.00............... 189.71%
12.00................. 132.00............... 194.12%
13.48................. 132.00............... 194.12%
15.00................. 132.00............... 194.12%

a 2 point move up will make money.

Trade #3
Oct 10/8 bull put spread for a net credit of $64

Price.................. Profit / Loss............ ROM %
6.00....................... (136.00).............. -68.00%
7.28....................... (136.00).............. -68.00%
8.00....................... (136.00).............. -68.00%
8.63......................... (73.00).............. -36.50%
9.36............................ 0.00................. 0.00%
9.98.......................... 61.80................. 30.90%
10.00........................ 64.00................. 32.00%
11.33........................ 64.00................. 32.00%
12.68........................ 64.00................. 32.00%

If price holds above $10 will make money


Trade #4
Oct 8/6 bull put spread for a net credit of $15

Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM %
4.50.................. (185.00)............. -92.50%
6.00.................. (185.00)............. -92.50%
6.07.................. (178.10)............. -89.05%
7.72.................... (13.00)............... -6.50%
7.85....................... 0.00.................. 0.00%
8.00..................... 15.00.................. 7.50%
9.37..................... 15.00.................. 7.50%
11.02................... 15.00.................. 7.50%
12.68................... 15.00.................. 7.50%

If price holds above $8 will make money

What about probability and expectation?

 

Anyone sell covered calls or naked puts on this with any success?