Click this link and deselect the logarithmic check-box. It is why the back of my mind had been starting to worry about the HODL idea. Damn... http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart What can we glean from this? Seems to me that to be a swing survivor on this trajectory you would need decades and 7 figures just to break-even on an entry at a bad point in the cycle with just one contract. P.S. If you really want some kicks, deselect the inflation check-box also. Heh.
Thanks for a good link. Here's another scary chart............. http://www.macrotrends.net/2600/nasdaq-to-dow-ratio-chart Looks like NASDAQ/DOW ratio is making right shoulder and if so it will signal a major technology crash or an explosive Dow bull rise.
This is one of my favorite charts, but in my reading I would think this puts us at "Irrational Exuberance" (Dec 1996) or early 1928. Meaning, we still have a long way up to go. My question would be to those who are scared by this, do you think the eventual crash takes us to lows above or below 2500 (SPX)? For my part, I'd say we still have most of the bubble to go, and the crash will be greater in magnitude than dot-com to 2009 lows, but won't take us below current levels (which is actually a bit dated--this was when we were trading around 2300 on SPX). I'd think 5000 in SPX is in play before we peak. But I'm also on the lookout for anything bearish where I might be wrong (and actually been on particularly high alert since the most recent earnings season).
Weird, those charts are a bit different. One makes us look like we are totally extended, the other makes it seem like we are kind of rationale lol. So what is going on here?
I'd be interested to see the divergence between transport and industrials from 1900 to 1940ish. I think that's a good analogy for tech vs market generally now in that the remaining railroads consolidated the failed ones when they were the established, previously-emerging, new technology. I'd suspect they're pretty similar looking charts.