https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ten...-approval-drops-points-poll/story?id=65414875 6 in 10 call a recession likely; Trump approval drops by 6 points: POLL Six in 10 Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and as many are concerned about higher prices because of the trade war with China, helping to knock 6 points off President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Trump fell from a career-high 44% approval in July to 38% now, a point off his career average, with 56% disapproving. His average rating since taking office remains the lowest on record for any modern president at a comparable point in his term, and he is the first never to have achieved majority approval. Trump has slipped by a slight 5 percentage points specifically on his handling of the economy, from 51% approval in midsummer to 46% now. Fewer -- 35% -- approve of his handling of trade negotiations with China, and 60% are concerned that the trade dispute will raise the price of things they buy. Ratings of the U.S. economy overall, 56% positive, are down from 65% last fall in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Most ominously, 60% see a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year. That’s within sight of the 69% who said so in November 2007, in advance of the Great Recession. In another measure, Trump gets far more criticism than credit for his economic stewardship. Americans by nearly a 3-1 margin, 43-16%, say his trade and economic policies have increased rather than decreased the chance of a recession in the next year. Approval The president’s overall approval rating continues to vary widely among groups. Among the sharpest declines, he’s lost 10 points since July among urban residents, 9 points among college graduates and 8 points among women. (A broad gender gap remains; he has 47% approval among men, 30% among women.) He’s also fallen just under 50% approval from whites – down a slight 6 points to 48%. That compares with 25% approval among Hispanics and just 10% among blacks, one of the country’s most Democratic-leaning groups. Two other shifts this month make Trump appear increasingly isolated in a core support group, white men who don’t have a college degree. They give him 69% approval. But he’s lost 12 points among non-college white women, to 42%; and Trump is down 15 points among college-educated white men, to 34%, a new low. They’re now as critical of the president as are college-educated white women. Lastly, Trump has 82% approval among Republicans, back near his career average after peaking at 87% in July. Marking the extent of polarization, his approval rating is 8% among Democrats. Among independents – often, though not always, swing voters in national elections – it’s 36%.
Our new CNN/SSRS poll shows that President Donald Trump's approval stands at just 39%. That's its lowest level since the beginning of the year, and it's down 4 points since the beginning of the summer. Importantly, the CNN poll is one of a number of recent high-quality polls that have Trump's approval dropping by mid-single digits since the beginning of the summer. That means it's less likely to be statistical noise. Here are a few other takeaways from the poll: It's not just that Trump has a low approval rating. His strongly approve rating of 28% is far below his strongly disapprove rating of 45%, which is a much wider gap than previous presidents saw and indicates an enthusiasm gap. Once a strength, Trump's net approval (approval - disapproval) rating on the economy is down 14 points since the beginning of the summer. It stands at just +1 point now. All of these seem to be driving 59% of voters to say that Trump does not deserve reelection, which is a significantly higher percentage than George W. Bush or Barack Obama had at this point. Thanks to a large sample size, we could break down Trump's approval rating to a microscopic level and saw that Trump's about as unpopular with Generation Z (29% approval) as he is with Millennials (31% approval). A sort of silver lining for Trump: His approval rating on gun policy is the highest of his presidency, but still low, at 38%.
2 hr 16 min ago Trump's reelection problems One of the big questions for 2020 is whether Trump's bad approval ratings will translate into problems at the ballot box. Our new poll suggests that they may very well, if current trends hold. In our poll, only 39% of voters say Trump deserves to be reelected. That compares to 58% who say he does not deserve to be reelected. Again, it's not unusual for a president to be underwater on these questions. But Trump is far into negative territory. The percentage of voters who said Obama didn't deserve reelection on this question was usually under 50%. Even at its height, it never got above the mid-50s. For Trump it has never gotten below the high 50s. The same holds true when you at George W. Bush's reelection ratings. They were usually below 50% at this point in the campaign. They never got above the mid 50s even at their peak. Perhaps more troubling for the president is these generic questions seem to be matching up with what we're seeing in the ballot test against potential Democratic contenders. As I noted previously, Trump's deficit against them is higher than it's been for any president since World War II.
The big enthusiasm gap against Trump Beyond the topline of Trump's approval rating, CNN also asked how strongly Americans approved or disapproved of Trump's job performance. The percentage who moderately approve (11%) is similar to the percentage who moderately disapprove (10%). The real nugget is that the 45% who strongly disapprove is significantly higher than the 28% who strongly approve. That 17-point gap is wider than the 7-point gap we found in April of this year. What's so interesting about that is some form of enthusiasm gap on approval exists across age, gender, race and even education levels. Now, it's not unusual for there to be an enthusiasm gap in which more people strongly disapprove than strongly approve of a president. We saw it with George W. Bush and Barack Obama at roughly this point in their presidencies. The difference is that Trump's is much larger. Obama's strongly disapprove rating in CNN polling was never more than 10 points higher than his strongly approve rating through his first three years in office. The same held true with Bush. Coming into 2020, it's easy to imagine that Trump may lack the enthusiastic supporters he will likely need to overcome what looks to be an unpopular standing overall.
CNN poll is latest to show Trump's approval down When you want to know if something is statistical noise or whether it's real movement is to, look at other pollsters. If all pollsters are showing the same thing, it's far more likely to be statistically significant. The other live interview pollsters who meet CNN's standards and released numbers over the last two weeks are showing similar movement to what CNN is showing when it comes to Trump's approval rating. ABC News/Washington Post has Trump with a 38% approval rating. Their prior poll released in early July had him at 44%. Gallup has Trump with a 39% approval rating. They too had him at 44% in early July. Quinnipiac University had him at a 38% approval rating. He was at 40% in late July and 42% in early June. That's an average decline in Trump's approval of 4 points from these pollsters comparing their latest poll to their earliest poll released in July. Our latest CNN poll compared to our poll released in early July (and conducted in late June) shows Trump down 4 points from 43% to 39%. In other words, there's very good reason to think Trump's approval rating is down.
The last 4 presidential election polls got the popular vote right. 3 of the last 4 presidential election polls got The EC right. Needing a 50% approval and approval higher than disapproval to win re election has been 100% right since polling began They mean something imo.