Since the s&p has come back down to 6000 i say let's play a game of price prediction. ....where will the s&p touch first...7000 or 5000??? I have asked a few people i know who trade and they easily said with a smile 7000. I'm taking the other option and will clearly say markets are not going to have a double digit return and will most likely end the year in the red with much volatility in between. My vote: 5000
I can't see how we're not having a recession this year, maybe worse. Hundreds of thousands of Feds being fired with a hiring freeze and contractors being shut down, closing the border and the illegals are scared to go to work, tariffs. Tons of headwinds.
Excellent points. My thoughts exactly on this.....its going to be quite a show. Hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs. The strain on the economy and consumer spending slow down will be the invitation to the recession of 2025....
Given that SPX trades very geometrically and on weekly charts we have double top exactly at symmetrical AB=CD level, I don’t think that 7000 is on the cards any time soon (unless the “plunge protection team” steps in to “save” the market for the last time). My vote 5000, . . . however, will it go all the way down to 5000? It might be in a volatile range for a while.
I think we will never touch 5000 points again on the SP500. The market is already in middle of fear level on sentiment. And on sentiment I am contrarian. Do not see more panic reactions coming soon. And when the market touches 8000 points first, the 5000 is too far away. Second there is much deregulation on the way or actually happening under Trump, this will boost economy. Those actions just happened it will take some to be effictive and noticeable, but this is sure it will come. Only headwind I currently see are from interest rates side as they are too restrictive. But they said they will do 2 rate cuts this year, so then it is almost okayish for the US economy. And third tax rate cuts discussion will start in the next few weeks with 14th March budget deadline. This will also boost fantasy on more corporate earnings. And last if the 2nd April tariffs do not come in the way they actually appear, so that many new agreements will be made to avoid them, then this bullish too. So in the end I even could imagine one of the best years for the US stock market ever in 2025. My two cents.
I forgot to factor in the plunge protection team and with trump as president...im sure after a 6% drop in markets he would soon start yelling that we need some intervention....rates aren't going down anytime soon, so throw that idea out the window... I don't think it's straight down to 5000 either but I do believe there will be heavy chopiness with a ton of volatility....
I am expexting kind of record on US stock market in those upcoming 4 years because of the reasons mentioned in my previous post. And the last 4 years under Biden was really not that extraordinary good.