Yeah, it seems like we are going a lot lower, but there could be a few smaller but very powerful counter trend rallies on the way as well as that chart from 2007 shows. Bear markets have some of the sharpest rallies, as you get regular dip buyers + you get panic covering from the short sellers who got in late and get shaken out. Or it could be like 2020 and the markets just go straight down fast. "Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market to-day has happened before and will happen again."
Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. Not true, we get lots of nice things... like up-tick/down-tick rules to fuck you over... Would be nice to be in a good spot for once and get hit by: Limit UP Limit UP Limit UP For days at a time, but never happens when it's in your favor, funny that! And why is it that CIRCUIT BREAKERS always fuck me at the worst possible moments?! Mortgage Backed Securities were a new nice thing. That went with a nice BANG. Hell, were you around in 87? You should have seen the nice new toys like Portfolio Insurance... caused one hell of a historic moment. I have to ask... have you ever seen a TWENTY-FIVE SIGMA event? Huh? Trust me... there's ALWAYS something new in Wall Street, and it's just waiting like some black swan Nassim Taleb likes to feed so he can mop-up the exchange-floor with his steam-roller.
Looks similar but the conditions of major financial institutions is completely different. In 2008 they were all in major trouble. Today there’s an argument to be made that this „crash“ is a self-fulfilling prophecy with everyone panicked over a record high valuations, inflation, and rate hikes. Feels more like 2010 to me. I’ll be DCAing all year. put another way, in 2008 the proverbial shit hit the fan. today, people are panic-selling because they think the shit will hit the fan. time will tell.
It is always the same reason ( for the most part), an asset bubble has popped. 2000 was more of a slow bleeding because we had the terrorist attack in 2001.
No, 2022 is nothing like 2008. In 2008, we had systemic risk since US financial system was on the verge of total collapse. Now what? If TSLA corrects 30%, no hard to US economy. Is all Google, MSFT, FB, NVDA, AAPL etc correct themselves 30% more, no hard to US economy. Also Bitcoin can drop 50%. No impact. Those are just the financial assets held by the rich people (some small traders will be wiped out too). The only risk is the housing market. Is house prices drop 20%, that will harm US financial system again. But US banks are better capitalized now. So 2022 is totally different than 2008. I'm not worried. Those NASDAQ 100 should continue to correct itself. Higher interest rate won't impact regular US businesses much since most of them do not borrow much now.
Huge difference. In 2008 Fed funds was not set at 0 with pre-pandemic record amounts of QE running in the background. P/Es were also far lower back then. Government wasn't sending trillions of $ to mailboxes back then to prop up earnings. We also didn't have the backdrop of China, Russia, and Iran doing joint military drills (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...int-naval-drills-after-key-putin-raisi-summit). We didn't have a nursing home mental care patient as president who has already declared that the next election could be illegitimate and pre-announced that we might not do anything if Russia invades Ukraine (events just from the last week). Debt to GDP looked much better. The average American looked much better (https://www.usnews.com/news/data-mi...sity-rates-over-last-decade-federal-data-show). A third of America didn't at least viscously hate the other half. I guess we're f***ed. Maybe the Fed can blow a bigger bubble and keep the show running for a bit longer.
2022 We have the fed actually saying inflation is an issue and also the fed is telling us that they may raise rates 3-4 times. That rhetoric hasnt been used for 12 years. We also havent had 7% inflation in how many years? Draw your own conclusions.
FWIW if today's ultra-activist Fed and government had been in place in 2008, it might never have become 2008.