538 - House Forecast shows 85.9% chance Democrats take control Forecasting the race for the House https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ (Link has all sorts of resources / charts -- including district by district)
Dem Senate hopes shift from winning majority to limiting losses Republicans could lock up a multi-cycle Senate majority by winning Indiana and other states like it this fall. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/22/senate-democrats-midterms-921666
Realistically, what really matters are the governors of North Carolina and Pennsylvania. If the congressional districts are drawn more fairly after 2020 all of these wild swings in the House will come to an end, and we will get a legislative body that actually pass useful legislation. People don’t realize how difficult it is to govern without the support of the majority of the people. You guys are all frustrated because the republicans control congress and the presidency but cannot get anything done - it’s because the House and the presidency are ill gotten. Hold on to your MAGA hats.
Governor of North Carolina? The Governor of North Carolina is not up for election this year. The biggest issue on our ballot is actually the six proposed state constitutional amendments.
I am aware. North Carolina is the heavily gerrymandered state in the country. Getting a fair map after 2020 will move the House more in line with the will of the people.
If Dems win the House after midterm elections, blame ‘red tide’ out to sea, not a ‘blue wave’ crashing in https://www.foxnews.com/politics/if...d-tide-out-to-sea-not-a-blue-wave-crashing-in Four things jump off the page when one conducts a deep examination of this autumn’s midterm House elections: The historic norms favor the opposition party of the President by a lot in House races. The President’s party loses an average of 29 House seats in most midterms. The sheer number of open seats which House Republicans must defend this fall is off the chart. More than 40 Republican seats are wide open. Dismiss out the paradigmatic norms. We operate now in the age of President Trump. Mr. Trump rode an inside straight to the White House two years ago. The rules have changed. Mr. Trump is a special phenomenon in American politics. Most midterm elections are a referendum on the first two years of a new President. Study what happened to President Clinton in 1994 and President Obama in 2010. Voters repudiated both chief executives with historic pickups, flipping control of the House. It’s unknown if supporters of President Trump show up just to cast a ballot for someone not named President Trump. That’s why it’s nearly impossible to determine how this election will go down. It’s likely to be close when it comes down to House control. Democrats must marshal a net gain of 23 seats to win the House. It could boil down to the outcome of three to five seats in either direction. Thus, it’s entirely possible we might not know which party has the House until a few days later. Party insiders and analysts believe 15-18 Republican seats are gone, no matter what happens. Some seats are more “gone” than others. A good example of this is a seat held by former Rep. Patrick Meehan, R-Pa. The redistricted seat heavily favors Democrats by close to 30 points. Similar circumstances prevail in the district held by retiring Rep. Ryan Costello, R-Pa. One can locate other examples in New Jersey where Reps. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J. and Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., are quitting, too. If Democrats win the House, it will be because of a “red tide” out to sea, not a “blue wave” crashing in. It’s hard for Republicans to defend so many vacant seats. If Democrats win the House, the GOP “open seat” dynamic may emerge as the most important factor in this midterm election. Democrats have their Achilles Heel in these midterms, too. It’s conceivable that Democratic candidates could rattle off lots of wins in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, California, Michigan, Illinois and Texas. But those Democratic “flips” could be offset by potential Republican pick-ups elsewhere. Consider the seat currently held by Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev. A House freshman, Rosen is abandoning that seat to challenge Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev. Rosen narrowly won election to the House two years ago as Republican Danny Tarkanian - son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian - held her below 50 percent. Democrats didn’t fare very well in many states in 2016. But Democrats excelled in Nevada. Still, President Trump carried Rosen’s district by a solitary percentage point. Tarkanian initially intended to challenge Heller. But Mr. Trump personally convinced Tarkanian to again run for the House, this time against Democrat Susie Lee. Tarkanian has run for the Senate and House without success over the years. That’s remarkable considering the credibility of his surname in Nevada. As we said earlier, just a handful of seats could determine control of the House. If Tarkanian finally wins and Republicans maintain control of the House by a whisker, experts will laud Mr. Trump’s decision to persuade Tarkanian to again run for the House versus the Senate. It could prove to be the shrewdest move of the entire campaign cycle. Democrats must defend an open seat along the Iron Range of Minnesota. Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN) is retiring after barely keeping the seat in Democratic hands the past several cycles. Republican Pete Stauber is running against Democrat Joe Radinovich. Hillary Clinton secured a scant 38 percent of the vote in this rural district two years ago. Then there is New Hampshire’s First Congressional District. This district is the most volatile in the nation. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., switched it to Democratic control in 2006 and held it in 2008. But the seat has gone Republican in every midterm since – with Shea-Porter rallying to return to Washington in each presidential election. President Trump won this district by two percentage points even as Shea-Porter reclaimed the seat in 2016. Shea-Porter is retiring at the end of this term. Republican Eddie Edwards is up against Democrat Chris Pappas this fall. In short, Democrats may make great gains elsewhere. But Democrats will fail to secure the majority if they lose seats like these. There’s also another problem for Democrats in Florida. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., is retiring. She’s one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. Hillary Clinton won Ros-Lehtinen’s district by a staggering 19 points. Former Clinton Administration Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is the Democratic nominee and faces Republican Maria Salazar. Here’s the issue for Democrats: Democratic insiders have long expressed concern about Shalala’s performance in the district. At 77-years-old, a Shalala victory would make her the second-oldest House freshman in history. Democrats have also struggled to earn traction in that district among Latino voters. This is a district which should be a lock for Democrats on paper. However, it’s anything but. There’s danger for Republicans, too. GOPers who represent urban and suburban areas could find themselves on the wrong end of an anti-Trump backlash. This is why Reps. Andy Barr, R-Ken., Kevin Yoder, R-Kan, John Culberson, R-Texas, Pete Roskam, R-Ill., Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and French Hill, R-Ark., might struggle. Democratic victories in seats like these could propel Democrats to the majority. That said, rural Republicans could benefit from a targeted bump after the bruising fight to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The Kavanaugh imbroglio ignited passions on both sides. An anti-Kavanaugh boost may help Democrat Jennifer Wexton defeat Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., in the Washington, DC suburbs. But a pro-Kavanaugh spike could bolster Reps. Bruce Poliquin , R-Maine, and Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., in districts where the President remains popular. There are several districts which bear watching in this matrix: Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, is in a race against Democrat Aftab Pureval in southwestern Ohio. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., is running for governor of New Mexico. Vying for Pearce’s seat in southern New Mexico are Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and Republican Yvette Herrell. Also, consider the contest between the aforementioned French Hill against Democrat Clarke Tucker. Note two Washington state races. House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., is up against Democrat Lisa Brown. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wash., faces Democrat Carolyn Long. If Democrats win even one of those races, that’s a signal Democrats will likely win the House. Democrats don’t have to win all of these races. And there are plenty of pathways for Democrats to earn control of the House without winning any of those seats mentioned above. However, these seats are bellwethers. Turning any of them from red to blue could provide a clue as to which party will be in charge of the House next year.
I think the Democrats have a high probability (70%) of taking control of the House, simply because they only need the average historical turnover, and there are more Republican seats in play. However, the chances of the Republicans retaining control of the House of Representatives are much better than before the Democrat Kavanaugh fiasco. Hopefully, their chances will continue to improve. Why Is the ‘Blue Wave’ Looking More Like a Splash Than a Tsunami? By JOHN FUND October 21, 2018 7:06 PM Good news on the economy and bad behavior by Democrats may be energizing Republicans. Every election people talk about an “October surprise” that upends the conventional wisdom about the outcome. Well, it appears we can see the contours of at least one October surprise. The Democrats have managed to shoot themselves in the foot with their handling of the Brett Kavanaugh nomination and the antics of their most extreme supporters. The “Blue Wave” that liberals have been waiting for may still come, but it’s more likely to splash the knees of most GOP incumbents than to submerge them. Veteran political handicapper Charlie Cook puts it bluntly in his latest column at the Cook Political Report, in which he asks whether “those who led the out-of-control demonstrations on Capitol Hill against the Kavanaugh nomination have any understanding of how much damage they did to Democrats and the party’s chances of winning a majority in the Senate. His answer: “My guess is they don’t. But Senate Democrats probably do.” Cook now says the odds of Democrats winning a Senate a majority are “long, no better than 1 in 5.” As of today, “a Republican net gain of a seat or two seems most likely, moving the GOP up to either 52 or 53 seats, though a gain of three seats or no net change [is] entirely possible.” As for the House, political analysts still make the Democrats the odds-on favorites to retake control there for the first time since 2010. But while the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll out today gives Democrats a nine-point advantage nationwide in voting for the House, it tells a different story in the battleground seats that will determine control: The Democratic advantage has vanished in House districts that matter most. In districts rated as most competitive, the parties are dead even on which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Dems led by 13 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters. In other words, Republicans have a real chance to beat the odds and hold their losses below the 23 seats that would transfer House control. The reasons for this turnaround are various and go beyond the shrinking of the enthusiasm gap between the parties (before the Kavanaugh nomination, Democratic voters were more enthusiastic). The WSJ/NB poll shows President Trump with a 47 percent job approval, his highest rating yet as president. At the same time, 43 percent of registered voters say Republicans handle the economy better versus only 28 percent who pick Democrats. That’s the largest lead on that question the GOP has ever had in the WSJ/NBC poll. In the aftermath of a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico, Republicans also are favored by voters on trade, by 17 percentage points. Democrats have an equally large advantage when it comes to health care, where they have an 18-point advantage. When asked what their most important issue is, 38 percent of voters said the economy and 31 percent said health care. The Kavanaugh hearings apparently took a negative toll on the image of Democrats. In September, Democrats had a 44 percent favorability rating, while Republicans were at 38 percent. Post-Kavanaugh, Democratic favorability has fallen nine points to 35 percent while the GOP has held even at 38 percent. It’s been years since the GOP had any advantage in polls on that question. The campaign still has more than two weeks to go, but early voting in most states locks up more ballots with each passing day. Another October surprise is still possible, but for now, the new conventional wisdom of the 2018 election is set: Democrats had a real chance to ride anti-Trump sentiment and inflict a crushing defeat on Republicans. But their own excesses tripped them up and woke up fatigued Republican voters, reminding them that 2018 was indeed an us-versus-them election. Republicans will probably still lose ground, but for the first time, they are on the offensive in many marginal districts. Perhaps one lesson from the 2018 election will be that when both President Trump and Democrats run brutal, divide-and-conquer campaigns, Trump just does it better and more effectively. And when voters finally focus less on personalities and more on issues in the final stages of the campaign, the left-wing lurch by Democrats hasn’t done them any favors in what is still a center-Right country. If the “Blue Wave” really does recede next month, will Democrats just blame Trump, or will they look in the mirror? The answer to that question may be a good predictor for how the 2020 presidential election turns out. https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/midterm-elections-democrat-blue-wave-predictions/
Hard to take Nate Silver seriously after epic fails like this. Trump actually became the presumptive nominee on May 3rd. "Math doesn't work" hahahahahahahahaha