if this trade is any indication of your approach, then, yes, your success is most likely attributable to luck. buying or selling is irrelevant to...
all univited wrote was that you are suggesting trades that involve extremely high risk. which is indisputable. for that iceman wants uninvited...
actually, mathematically the expectancies have not changed. with this zero exp lottery over a large number of plays you should hit the first...
zero expectancy incorporates all currently known information. once you are in a trade, information changes in an unpredictable way. on any...
no but the statistical correlation between current option prices and value at expiration is highly correlated and the distribution of future...
what a trader thinks is irrelevant to expectancy. i may buy a lottery ticket with the "expectation" that i will win. that doesn't change the true...
i guess this is possible but highly improbable. since +expectancy resides with the trader there is no reason that the selection process cannot be...
here's how you can tell that John and i are not the same person. ask us which ends of the political spectrum we occupy. here's a hint: i'm a...
i love this. i always wanted to be part of a conspiracy. now the truth can be told. mav and i are actually siamese twins. we also trade against...
well one of the themes of this thread is that the markets are efficient. you can never know who is on the other side of your trade and certainly...
only if i can have you trade for me. :p
god knows why, but let me re-enter this discussion and try to add a thought or two. first of all expectancy as i understand it is the...
interesting question. i'd approach it this way. first, markets are becoming more efficient as greater and greater resources are devoted to the...
i'm not an actuarial accountant but that is their job. they determine and quantify individual and group risk profiles. the insurance companies...
if you sell an option it is not "worthless" since it holds value for the person buying it - which means that there is always a probability of it...
this is nonsensical. there is no "flaw" they are just pulling randomly selected scenarios out of thin air to sell whatever it is they're hawking....
that's why i said it is a weighted average of opinions. if soros believe an asset is worth $10 and has a billion dollars riding on that opinion...
how else can you conceive of fair value in a market based system? that's how i understand supply and demand to be working themselves out. please...
how is that different from a directional bias. i used this example earlier in this thread. assume a stock with only two opinions. 50% believe it...
we are obviously talking about different notions of probability. no one knows the future. prices reflect the weighted average of every market...
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