Yes, but they are also closed at an average price. Or you can use LIFO or FIFO. Really depends on what fits the system best. My system is...
Your expectancy is very good, and your % winners isn't a problem. The whole point is that none of those factors can be viewed independently....
Yes, but you said "trades" not RT. Just wanted to clarify. Also, I just read through my previous posts really quick and realized that I...
111 trades? Or 111 round trips?
Now you have a slightly more realistic picture of where you've been until now. You know that in aggregate you expect to make $13.38 for every...
Yes, that's what I've been trying to explain this whole time. Whether to increase size depends completely on the effect that increase would have...
Well, the expectancy of EVERY model varies. You still seem to be missing the point. A trader doesn't artificially maintain the expectancy within...
Determining historical expectancy is very simple. Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win %) â (Probability of Loss * Average Loss...
You seem to be confusing things. Expectations and Expectancy are two very different things. Expectation : A strong belief that something...
Let me put it this way. Most bets in games at a casino give the house a positive expectancy of 1/2% to 10%, and a casino is considered a license...
I'm confused by your response. Do you understand the concept of expectancy? If your system has an expectancy of 100%, you literally have the...
There is a huge problem with this argument. The risk to the client and the risk to the adviser are very different. There is no way for the...
I add ONLY based on my model telling me that doing so will result in increased expectancy. Simply getting a lower price doesn't increase...
You missed the point of his post. He was referring to quants. Quants are typically not trend traders. Most base trade signals off probabilities...
If fresh analysis always tells you to add, then your model is broken and you have no edge.
It still sounds like you are adding once "just because". Kind of a "well it hasn't worked out yet so let's double the position and hope it...
Which is why trend following systems typically outperform contrarian systems. The most interesting result of backtesting markets is that it turns...
It isn't baffling at all from a statistical viewpoint. If the sample size is large enough, the frequency of 50 heads in a row is precisely...
Very different when you are talking about managing OPM. When trading personal capital with an indefinite time horizon, you are correct in siding...
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