What's so special about the number 50? Why not 49 or 53? The lag in a simple moving average, or any finite impulse response (FIR) filter is...
Try a one-pole Inverse Chebysev highpass filter, followed by an Inverse Fisher transform to normalize the data. No I'm not giving you the details...
67 percent is a very good winning percent, but does it translate into positive expectancy? The more conditions you add to your basic system, the...
A Quant and a Data Engineer as described here are not necessarily the same person or skill set. A Quant IMHO has much more of a mathematical skill...
Can a slope which exceeds a value be considered a pattern? No. Think about it, price is a highly random variable, and the lookback period is...
Breaking the rules is the least concern here. The biggest issue, as stated several times, is why have a business relationship with a firm that...
An analogy is to this conundrum Schrodinger's cat. Both states are possible until you collapse the wave function and actualize one or the other...
Want to remove skew and kurtosis from your price data before calculating expected moves? 1) perform a Box-Cox transform on price. The reader can...
future_price = current_price*exp(stddev*vol*sqrt(days_in_future/365)) Example: What is the 1SD future price in 20 calendar days of a stock that...
Under the assumption of a normal distribution with no skew or kurtosis, 84% of the area under the curve lies to the left of 1SD and 16% to the...
You could put some very specific rules around that particular pattern, but then you would probably get very few hits. It would take some careful...
They moved because more money bought at the ask than sold at the bid over the course of the year. Trying to always find cause and effect in...
How do you not chase? Buy low, sell high is my recommendation. Not easy to execute on when high and low are relative, and not absolute. I use a...
Ok, but that is too general a statement to be of much benefit. What specific criteria do you use to define and quantitate "massive speculation?"...
Pattern trading is just an example of pareidolia. Name me one pattern that you personally have backtested and proved to be positive expectancy....
Just a quick go at the math: 1 - 0.4 - 0.4 = 0.2 or 20% for questions A or B
Yes it is possible to know today if the market is trending or ranging. However, you can't know with anything other than 50% precision whether...
As a retail trader, selling premium has no "edge" whatever strategy you employ to pick strikes, and maximizing payoff is optimal. If you can...
Maximizing payoff is the best strategy. Generally, high probabilities come with small rewards, and vice versa. However one calculates probability,...
You may want to study Kalman filters. Instead of doing all the matrix math, just search John Ehlers and "Optimal Tracking Filters."
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