this is the first logical thing I’ve personally seen you post on this forum.
Do you pull these probabilities out of your arse
No, IMO, real skills get developed only under real stressors
[IMG] Source: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm
Looking back, would you rather give up some of those returns to avoid large losses such as today’s? Would that have been worth it to you, in...
1. Not necessarily, depends what you mean. If I have $100,000 and all are deployed in, say, butterfly spreads, all cash deployed at the same...
For position sizing, research Kelly criterion
What I mean by clipping the left tail is...removing the risk of ruin from your portfolio whether that’s hedging a long equities w/ put option...
Option prices have many more dimensions that affect its price. It’s not just the underlying. Did u know that
it’ll only continue to get more chaotic in future crashes. New extremes will blow away current extremes. Entropy is rising. Takes a lot of time tho
dont you realize how naive your approach is
Cmon bro, you’re smarter than this
i would rather be piss poor broke with a boring life than to be rich and be like you you’re a lunatic
https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics...
need not draw a line in the sand and put these users you've mentioned above on one side and yourself and retail on the other. we're in this...
1. Both tradable 2. Because of the skew 3. Let’s focus on our payoff space and simply make that, at the least, robust to tail events(surviving) or...
we just need to acknowledge that there are things unknowable and hedge ourselves (clip the left tail off); can be done a few ways
Assuming fat tailed/heavy tail distribution, generally speaking, it can. Depends what we’re looking at. And What we define as black swan etc....
I never once assumed it was “just” luck. Twice you’ve responded to me and both times you have committed a comprehension mistake. Some call it a...
Appears like luck had a disproportionate role in your final outcome Nevertheless, do it 2,000 times and if you’re still alive then the hypothesis...
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