Usually in stock indices, premium drops on rallies. In 2007 implied vol was at about 10-15 near the highs. For 2000 it was higher but not...
Yeah I generally agree with that. I'm just viewing this as a specific market environment in a specific moment in time, trying to analyze it on...
It's an edge because you know that the probability distribution of future prices has a major skew to very large price falls in the next few years....
Why did you buy at 1120, what was you trade rationale? IMO there were two possible reasons to buy - you expected a short tem bounce, or you...
I guess the problem is in stop placement - what if the bull market corrects enough to stop you out, then resumes? You do worse than staying flat,...
A more pertinent example was Japan in (IIRC) 2004-05. The economy started growing, real estate had it's first up year for over a decade, and the...
Lol, you fail at job interviewing.
Well with a few days to go I'm up 84% this year.
You mean like Bear Stearns or Lehman?
CRE prices fell 35% nationwide, some markets it was 50% or more - that's a crash and it's already happened. As for your other point, you could...
At the lows yes it was. But commercial real estate prices got decimated, there's no getting around that fact - a 35% fall peak to trough since...
In that case, the undesirable activity is the breaking into peoples homes, stealing, defrauding the welfare system etc i.e. genuine crime. Which...
My prediction is that Obama will win the presidential election comfortably. However, I doubt we will see the 10-1 odds that made him such an...
I agree for the most part, and my comment was not trying to knock your post at all. I was just pointing out that it's hard to trade from other...
Always trade your own views. Trading on other people's opinions is a losing proposition.
I think you should double up by rolling your options into further out-the-money calls close to expiry. All in baby!
Rogers was partner in a fund, and Faber ran a fund (maybe still does, I haven't checked), so both have published track records. Schiff has...
No. Martingale is doubling up simply because the price is down, without regard to the trade expectation. Accumulating is increasing your size...
Isn't the term "conviction sell" rather redundant? All that it takes to exit a stock is to view the outlook as less attractive than your current...
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