I see. So the increase in treasury rates and decrease in equities that started when the news was released was not the reason those events...
So this is what drove the ~0.5% drop in futures the last 15 minutes. Thanks for posting.
But you are still paying margin interest to buy the futures and our borrowing at a much higher rate, no? Using 500K as collaterol still leaves you...
Do you know the best place to trade this? Kalshi is so illiquid I have never even attempted it. I feel 62% is low given the last 100 days, lol.
I think first principals is easiest to explain this. 10 people own stock ABC and it is at $20. 1 person puts a bid of $18 and 1 person decides to...
That is COMPLETELY insane. Didn't he start most of these fights? I found him hilarious and very insightful, so sad to see him go, but I wouldn't...
So agree with this! The war against working from home makes zero sense. If your productivity is at least what it was in the office, and this can...
I should add, if their is more and more fear, puts will get more expensive (not necessarily more than calls but more than they "should" cost)...
For Black Scholes, Stocks are expected move higher at the risk free rate + be compensated for volatility. Why would you buy a stock if you can buy...
I did about an hour ago. I don't care too much though, just another trade. Targetting $1500-$2000 on 4 contracts. No biggie.
That's my favorite of all Miyagi's quotes and there's a lot of great ones. The 3rd movie was a bit of a let down but that one line put it up a...
Doesnt it also get trained by all people, so it has to be so stupid no? Just saying, lol
I use chat GPT a lot and it is horrible. Gonna cancel my 20 a month. It is always so confident, spewing garbage, and incorrect information. I...
Thanks for the post. Yah, I did some monte Carlo in Excel and because of the ridiculously insane win rate after 10-15 trades in most scenarios...
What is your average target? For example, are you targeting 1% returns, 3% returns, etc. Curious your risk of ruin.
I've been reflecting on this. I did change my strategy about 2/3 into the year where I stopped trading more marginal spots. Not only did I trade...
Interesting point on the goal not needing to be beating the S&P on risk adjusted basis as I only daytrade futures on the side and have a passive...
Oops, didn't realize. Yah, metals and grains. I very rarely trade ES.
Since I have end of day trading systems that I use futures for, perhaps its 20K on day trading futures. I don't have it split out. But my point...
The fact that you think its $4 round trip makes me wonder if you actual trade futures. I never said 25K is what I net a year. I used this year as...
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