Never ending herding this year… poll after poll 48/49. It’s not possible. [MEDIA]
Most pollsters reduced the weight on their recency voters, giving more weight to low propensity voters. Meaning their likely voter models look...
The point is for polling to be valid, some pollsters need to be way off. Flipping a coin will give you a 50/50 result only about .50 percent of...
This is an impossible level of closeness. There should be, theoretically, some outliers of the polls. In 2012 there was similar herding on the...
If Trump wins this election it will be because JD Vance was able sway Haley voters in the suburbs into believing the Trump administration will...
This is related to a guy named Scott Pressler who is running the Republican voter registration and get out the vote operation in Pennsylvania....
In the scheme of things Harris is going to have to make a choice on where to wage the battle. PA or WI/NC/NV. Either or will get her there and all...
Not to belabor the point but AZ is a lost cause for Harris. Tomorrow’s news today I suppose but the media still has not picked up on it. [MEDIA]
This guy doesn’t understand a significant amount of Americans don’t have a life and want a Trump presidency to fill their desire for retribution…...
Not too much movement in today’s update of the PA early vote. Prognosticators say Dems need a 350-400k firewall in the vbm/EV in PA to stand a...
She came out net positive. I never like to see a pol bending to a pressure campaign, which is what Harris did by going on Fox, but she came in...
Nice coverage of the early vote and mail ins. [MEDIA]
Harris campaign is liking Georgia right now… [MEDIA]
Down goes Frazier… I mean Arizona. Harris can pull all the ads from Az and the ground game. Pack it up and move to… watching Nevada… She cannot...
[MEDIA]
Watch these numbers… For context, in 2020 the total mail in was 2.63m, with Biden ultimately winning about 75%. [MEDIA]
No. I did not say polling was “fixed.” What I said was the models were changed and pollsters “corrected” their models by reducing the weight on...
I hope so! However, I doubt it. NC is a possibility though. Conversely, Trump will win some blue states, specifically in the southwest.
The polling models are different this cycle. The majority have “corrected” for a Republican error by lessening the recall weighting in models....
Three weeks until Election Day… It’s going to be tiiiiiiiiiight. Trump must win Pennsylvania. If doesn’t he can’t win. The southwest is strong...
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