So what's your answer? We want a number.
Could you outline your thinking here? Thanks.
Here's a new puzzle for you optimal sizers. Here's the scenario: There is a 35% chance that you win 20% of your bet ; There is a 25%...
One final word from me in this thread. I started this thread in a spirit of generosity. Nobody knew what I knew. Nobody knew I knew it. I thought...
I gave a gift to ET. The intelligent will know what to do with it. The unintelligent will bitch and whine because I didn't top it with whipped...
The lazy shall remain uninformed.
System Achievement Score (SAS) SAS == 4*k*max[ 0, E ]*PF*min[ 1, N/1000 ] , where k is the Kelly fraction aka the solution to the optimal...
"A theory should be made as simple as possible but no simpler." -- Albert Einstein The simplest theory Einstein could find to explain the...
For purely binary outcomes there is no risk of bankupcy. It is only when multiple-outcome scenarios are "condensed" to the binary case that...
The expected value is gain per unit bet. Same for both strats. The Kelly fraction tells how many units to bet. Clearly strategy A is superior.
Expected value: E(A) = 0.6(+1) + 0.4(-1) = 0.2 E(B) = 0.4(+2) + 0.6(-1) = 0.2 Kelly fraction: K(A) = 0.6/|-1| - 0.4/1 = 0.2 K(B) = 0.4/|-1| -...
Of course. I get out when my indicator shows that the current trend has disappeared or reversed. Aside from the fact that my indicator doesn't...
Nowhere did I suggest that anyone should search for absolute certainty. Quite the opposite. No one can trade with hindsight, hence there is no...
But that's the whole rub, innit? The only way to know for absolute certain whether a move is a pullback or a reversal is with hindsight. In the...
Are there really 50+ different types of pullbacks or just some neurotic obsessed with minutiae? Seriously, which is more likely? Reminds me of...
The difference between zero and one trillion is "mere points". Doesn't matter. Even if she called the top within 0.5%, it happens. If someone...
Fortunately for indicatorists, that ain't the case. I don't give a crap about pullbacks until they make the trend disappear. Then I'm out and...
OK roadmap isn't the right analogy. But there are explorer maps over territory that hasn't been fully surveyed and recorded. An explorer map has...
If your trading plan has a winrate of only 50% then you need a better trading plan. And they do exist.
I love when he consults one of his chartists, especially "the Fibonacci queen". TA can work but not the dreck Cramer dredges up. Except in his...
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