Rosenberg lastest updated is very good. He reaches a similar conclusion that I shared in the journal -The stock market is pricing in 4.25% GDP...
Fed Futures initially tumbled and now are stabilizing, its has not been a good morning as an effort to hedge by going long ES predictably result...
The 'labor force' dropped by 422K to 154,504. This is likely to be the denominator in both UR and U6, so perhaps this is why. Even though there...
I'm yet to figure out how the household data+estabilishment data can both show employment losses yet the UR falls with the U6 rate falling at the...
You are correct that in contracts like Feb you make a little but might lose a lot. But that situation resembles being an insurance company...
Thats the point of that study, there is a risk premium in holding those contracts. Much like holding equities produces long-run profits on avg....
Not even the brazilian/australian central bank is talking or signaling hikes. When the countries with higher relative economic strenght start...
I cut back in some shorts this should make room for fluctuations in fed futures contracts There are tons of reasons to expect no policy change...
There is a paper now explaining why fed futures tend to price in ridiculous fed policy probabilities http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/ff_ms.pdf...
Who you think is more LIKELY to have higher counterparty risk, a bank with $1m notional derivative exposure or a bank with $1T exposure?(Remember...
The 30's had 1/3 GDP collapse mainly because of bank panics, collapsing money supply, 10% yearly deflation. Those things are not present right...
Define depression
Reminds me of Roubini and Rosenberg downgrading their S&P 'target' to below 600 whithin days of the march 9 bottom
Rogers is a fool, this rally has nothing to do with inflation. The broad money supply is actually struggling to growth. Long-run expectations are...
I heard pimco is already stalking this corpse
How can you forget the healthiest sector of the economy, the stock market :D
I'm not sure this will be a big thing very fast. The link says lots of stuff will be sent to Comprehensive Income. Its the net figure that people...
True. The US economy ex-government propup is what will define things like when the recession will be declared over(They look at income less...
I dont have a clue what anaconda wrote as he is in my ignore list. But I'd suggest you read a bit on george soros to understand why there is no...
Its quite possible Austrians are correct that interest rate manipulation driven by the central banks creates 'malinvestments' however they are...
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