Listen sonny boy, I have read over 400 trading books during the last 20 years, and I continue to read new ones every month (not to mention my...
Same here, I use Monte-Carlo simulations all the time, but mainly to estimate the risk of ruin of various trading systems, mine included. Thanks...
In other words you are using brute force to predict the possible behavior of a semi-random event (the up and down movements of a stock). Have you...
Will you give me a break with options? Options contracts in the US only exist since 1968 (and 1973 for black scholes). Suppose we are in 1955 and...
Again, where is it? Write it down here. And please, no Black Scholes model.
Right, so your answer is simply: "I don't know any mathematical formula that will allow me to calculate the probability of a stock reaching a...
Will you stop these childish personal attacks each time you cannot answer an extremely simple question?
For the most part yes...except when they start printing fat tails. (Long-Term Capital Management and other "quants" learned this fact the hard way)
Let's forget about options for a second. The price of a stock is $100. I bet you $20 000 that it will drop to $90 before hitting $110. Would you...
At its core, the mathematical model for "pricing" options is flawed, because it assumes that prices are normally distributed. Well, guess what,...
Yes, but here we are simply talking about the probability of a stock moving 10% up or down. Can you calculate it?
You forgot to mention that while the distributions of daily and even monthly stock returns are more or less symmetric about their means, the tails...
Tricky question. Assuming the stock is moving at random, it has a 50% chance of touching $90 and a 50% chance of touching $110, a 10% move in...
You don't necessarily need to make directional bets to extract money from the market. You can earn a good living betting that a financial...
Why, and why is that so "urgent"?
The idea that we can somehow make more money on the higher time frames (daily, weekly, monthly) is just a freaking myth, I can assure you.
Oh, that particular guy? I was referring to the future of the 7 or 8 billions people currently on earth, sorry.
I was simply responding to your comment : "he's not standing in front of a bunch of tanks in the name of democracy."
If that's the case Ph1, that means most of your trading idea have no mathematical edge. Try to reverse the "logic" behind your systems, as this...
You truly believe that the Elite will enslave us with tanks and other Army stuff, when a simple digital currency (call it Bitcoin if you like) and...
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