Sadly, it's more likely that it goes to 0.5% like in Japan, that's where the risk is.
Yeah, that's continuously compounded rate of about 3%. Not bad indeed, but certainly not a beacon of stability, all things considered (e.g. buying...
SOFR is really a mix of 3 different rates - tri-party (where BoNY is involved as a custodian), bi-party (delivery versus payment as facilitated by...
Yeah, I am involved with these, though liquidity is still luke-warm. As for SOFR/FFER spread - SOFR is a mix of several different overnight repos,...
Just remembered what I wanted to add here. One of the key issues with MMT is that it fails to model that inflation levels are largely driven by...
I suspect that this is pure selection bias, to be fair. Most accounts that have equities or ETFs are buy and hold, while most options accounts are...
Well, with all these bad news, are you short? :P
is your thinking that hard brexit is already fully priced into the currency while an upside surprise would give a nice bump or you think it's...
Hmm. My intuition is that it's very binary - either a hard Brexit or a second referendum and no Brexit at all.
Well, based on the summary the Mueller Report is bullish, no? Or is that the buy the rumor, sell the news type of reasoning? Well, we are pricing...
@destriero - thanks! I was being lazy indeed. So what do we think of the inverted yield curve? My sense is that combined with the lousy numbers...
So your intuition is that we shall see a melt-up before we get on with a melt-down? In some ways, that's sensible given how underinvested the...
well, tomorrow is a day, i am thinking longer horizon - let's say to the end of year?
wanna create a separate one? i kinda wish we had a smart macro thread, but these things alway tend to get spammed by politics, TA-babble or just...
which leg do you think will get crushed? Personally, I'd venture that the long gold trade is not where it's at, but I am kinda agreeing that...
It's not even down to the lows of 2016, though. I think if you really want a sob story, you want to look at the stuff coming out of developed...
Dumb money is not always wrong, you know. In any case, who do you think was buying equities in the last few months?
The Fed does not want to raise any alarms in the asset markets, but the economic numbers paint a mixed picture. If anything, the rates market (Fed...
Prior to the next recession, gold was very expensive, as the inflation fears were rampant (remember the uber-bullish oil forecasts?). You would...
It's simple. Take the current futures strip, the first one is ES1, second one is ED2 etc. Once the current first futures expires, the second...
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