Now, if you change the "Kelly" bet strategy, and use 8% of the max Bankroll instead of 8% of the current Bankroll, and compare with a fixed $80...
You didn't prove anything, you did not even try. I can't blame you, proving the Kelly fraction is the best bet for a single spin is impossible...
The law of large numbers does NOT apply to small sample-sets.
Please, prove it. Red-16 1-spin scenario has the odds stacked against it, 89.2% chances of losing your bet. You have to believe in Santa to...
Anyway, thank you for posting that interesting problem :)
Now for Red betting: 24%-bankroll Red : ending bankroll 50th percentile +1213, stdev 1342 $93-fixed bet: ending bankroll 50th percentile...
My bad, all of the MC results I posted were using 36-1 for a single number win, instead of 35-1 as mentioned in post #1. Here are the corrected...
I used "guarantee minimum ending bankroll" as I computed it assuming 10 losses in a row. It is your true guaranteed minimum ending bankroll using...
On a single-spin opportunity, I would not even bother looking at Red16 as the odds clearly favor a net negative P&L, in case you didn't notice....
Here are some MC results: 8%-bankroll Red-16 : ending bankroll 50th percentile +1823, stdev 68626 4%-bankroll Red-16 : ending bankroll 50th...
When was the last time the law of large number was applicable to small sample-sets, 10 or even 1 as you suggest? I welcome the proof here that...
I am most certain Kelly fraction & such doesn't apply because of the 10-spin limit Betting 1 on red every spin, the average ending P&L on 10...
Because of the limit of 10 spins, the outcome of any betting strategy is still mainly governed by luck. But betting red has the greatest chances...
Not at all. When I go to a casino (never in actual facts), I expect to loose my bankroll, so my betting strategy here is to maximize the win...
I play $100 on Red-16 until I win (at which point I stop playing) or the 10 spins are over.
Results for the week ending March, 28th, 2014: - 3 wins ; 0 losses ; net +2405 The end of last week (Thursday 20th) & the beginning of this...
Poor trading is either: - not having a trading plan with a "real" edge - not executing that trading plan What gets you into either of these...
This is where those stats from the underlying market model become really useful in assessing the validity of the patterns found through...
I am now getting to the two most important statistics generated by this market model: the % of trends that need to be traded "with-trend" (TR),...
The key datapoint in the stat analysis is what I call the trend UsefulSize, which is the number of points from a trend-change to the next...
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