What's irrational about being funny? Comedians live by making rational predictions about what will make people laugh. Perhaps a movie of your...
What we are discussing, moi drug, is the meaning of "irrational". I'm maintaining that markets only appear irrational to us because we don't...
Ah... that was JM Keynes, who was a great macroeconomist but lost his shirt on the market. Keynes was responsible for one of the most amazingly...
Not irrational, Ivanovich - unexplained. I have a model that takes into account resource prices (heavily weighted for oil) and interest-rate gap....
Dumb. Of course working out crosses is a matter of multiplication, not addition. In other words, a 7-point spread in a currency worth 2 units...
Very interesting, thank you. As to GBPCAD, I notice this. Two things happened on May 10: the BofE put rates up .25%, and Tony Blair announced...
Kashirin is maybe too optimistic, but he has a point. The peak oil people think we are approaching the point where we aren't discovering oil fast...
A brief history of oil prices I found historical data going back to 1949 on...
Fraid your memory is faulty. There is a site out there somewhere that has historical data back to 1950, can't seem to find it at the moment, but...
Mmmm. To me, technical indicators all represent attempts to spot patterns and predict the future on the basis of the past. Seems to me people...
Anyway, that was a nice piece of prediction, worth a comment.
Last summer, I made some money on a stock called Ainsworth, a West-Coast lumber producer. I bought at $24 and sold a few days later at $26....
The reason that there are more longs than shorts is that there are more fundamentalists than chartists, and they realize that USDCAD is...
"Oil prices have dropped even though gasoline is still high ... curious." I thought I explained that one. Bottleneck in refinery capacity...
(sorry, hit enter prematurely) ...won't have to worry about global warming, because oil will hit $1000 in 2024 and even the most expensive...
It looks like the USDJPY carrion trade topped out at 121.38 and is now doing one of its patented plummets. We may see it back at 116 by the end...
Well, RBC is with me: they're predicting 1.21 "in response to easing energy and commodity prices, smaller M&A flows and ongoing negative interest...
I don't think it can be interest rate differentials: GBP is at 5.25%, same as USD, so the differential is in their favour against the loonie,...
OK, Ivanovich, point taken. But oil sands oil is expensive, and as far as I know not connected by pipeline to any port. So it would cost a lot...
If you start with 1998-1999 as a baseline for oil prices and assume a natural growth rate of 17.68%, you track oil prices pretty closely through...
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