Quote from atticus: <<< He has his own statistical measures while berating an actual probability derived from what he's selling. The OTM% is...
Correct. I thought I made that very clear from day one. I consider the same variables others include in their statistical analysis. But my...
My prob analysis is not based on fundamentals. It's based on the "overall big picture", which the trade is comprised of and influenced by....
I had some GTC orders in on a number of Chinese stocks recently, including BIDU above. Unfortunately the sector just had a run up and I missed...
All good points. BTW, I've stated repeatedly, that my statements refering to my "opinion" regarding probability analysis formulas, do NOT refer...
I'm only questioning the "accuracy, relevancy, and usefullness, of posting actual prob percentages on a trade that is fluctuating daily, and is...
The Thorp, Revere's APC/Uston's count worked back in the day because the casinos were not as informed about card counting back then as they are...
I love that you and others actually believe all that crap actually pertains to your trades. Thanks, but I'll stick to "common sense analysis" for...
<<< WHAT are you predicting? Good lord, we keep going around and around in circles here. What EXACTLY are you predicting when you initiate this...
I don't use credit spreads. You have me confused with oldnemesis. Saying option sellers are initiating trades simply for the sake of a trade is...
<<< So you are trying to predict the terminal distribution based on the idea that options are overpriced. The edge you are implying is not in the...
<<< If the hit is small naked puts are better, if the hit is large spreads are better. >>> On this we can agree.
I agree with the math, but I'm not sure of it's relevance in the actual world of trading. I'm not talking about manipulating the probabilities....
Good explanation.
I agree. But isn't it also true that each current trade is independent of the previous trade and the next trade? Thus, the issue is, what is the...
I should not have used the term adjustment. I was not refering to making an adjustment on a deteriorating trade. i was actually refering to the...
I don't disagree with anything you stated. But just for clarification, I didn't intend to compare a particular option trade with a lottery. I...
I don't think any trade gives you an actual "edge". The best anyone can do, is raise or lower their "probability" for success, relative to their...
I don't like strategies that limit my potential movement. I don't like borders. I gotta be free! While selling puts includes a one sided...
When you have to resort to silly statements about "nickel bets" and "no risk",.... you've already lost the arguement. As far as potentially...
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