This doesn't really answer my question re: drawdowns (not that you are obligated to do so of course). Taleb gets paid 2% to wait for something to...
The funny thing is that if they saved more, it would only mean stiffer competition to buy Silicon Valley houses and S&P 500 shares.
Great for landlords? Where I live (coastal metro) rental yields have never been lower, at least during my lifetime. In any case, the USA has...
if they couldn't afford to pay rent, they wouldn't be tenants.
A resurgence of inflation. Failing that, I believe the indices will be marked up to at least 50x forward earnings over the next 3-5 years....
How large and lengthy are your drawdowns? Seems like a pretty tough game to bleed down month after month after month until Covid comes along, or a...
On the one hand, about 25 years too late - and say hello to inflation! On the other, it would be nice if the coming China-USA war (which seems...
Deflation is bad because it creates positive economic returns to sitting on a pile of gold coins and scratching your balls. Compared to a...
Forcing SOEs to buy stocks in each other is totally idiotic and exposes the economic illiteracy of the CCP senior leadership. Chinese stocks are...
The problem with China stocks is that the CCP doesn't give a f*ck about shareholder returns. There's no reason to expect listed companies to...
Not surprising the board consists largely of geriatrics. The modal active ET member is a retiree with time on their hands who doesn't trade with...
Say what you will about Elon, but he's created more shareholder value in a shorter time span than any entrepreneur in history.
AI won't create mass unemployment. Assuming your society has sufficient productive capacity, which the USA certainly does, jobs become political...
Gigacap tech monopolies plus superior underlying economic dynamism (e.g. much higher potential growth vs. EU and East Asia due to massive...
Check out truflation.com. Prices ostensibly down 1.5% or so since September. Softness heading into Dec is normal seasonally but 2023 was...
Have you seen a chart of FXI recently? Down in USD terms from nearly 20 years ago, to say nothing of relative perf vs US stocks. The crash has...
Been hearing about China's debt bomb for over 15 years now. Most likely what will happen this time around will be the same that happened all the...
BTC will never be a unit of account for the same reason that gold isn’t a unit of account - namely, that taxes must be paid in fiat.
BTC is precarious here IMO. If the ETF is approved we’ll get sell-the-news; if it’s not approved then the market will dump to 35k in a jiffy.
Forecasting is hard, especially for permabears. The GFC taught a generation of market players that big macro bear calls were the path to fame and...
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