Male, from Canada
here for a good time not a long time Mar 31, 2019
here for a good time not a long time
how do you theta weight
The PVH move today is what I saw when I traded PVH before earnings last week. I doubled down to 8 PVH Jun 160 calls at avg 2.825 betting PVH would break out of this base on base pattern.
Looks like PVH jun 155 calls suggest it is pricing in 6.5% move. As for LULU, they are pricing an 8.1% move, but that could change tomorrow as more options are in play.
Yes, these are definitely different strategies. I'm setting up for directional moves that could take more than one day to follow through, where I see you're looking at locking in IV crush by selling straddles. It will be interesting to see how both plays out and make profit over time.
I used to know someone who would use that strategy too, and the issue occurred when the stock moved beyond the short straddle. He would tell me that the trade would result in -100% losses of initial risk at times. That's why I mentioned that you might not want to blanket the system to all earning reports.
But there are patterns in trading earning reports. Ex. I traded INTU on a pattern where my initial risk on INTU Jun 195 calls was about -$1000, with a net profit of +$975 3 days later. I did without really looking at INTU's fundamental, just pure pattern recognition using optionslam.com too. That site used to have a history of 12 reports for free, but they've since charged you for that.
Did you attempt your system on CRM? I've got PVH Jun 160 calls today with PVH reporting earnings AH. I also have LULU for earnings tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see how both of these play out on your system.
Yes I closed at the open this mornings for 5.8. small 10% gain. What are the Standard deviations for PVH and LULU sorry dont have time to trade earnings tomorrow or look into this studying for CFA
That's what I have learned over 12 years of trading. Some stocks don't have any sort of predictability during earnings, but others can be easily predicted. Sorry for the long comment.
Thanks for the insight. I will be working on it over the next few days. Thanks
Your best chance is to group certain stocks together, but instead of just looking at growth vs. mature stocks, also look at their reaction to earnings. Better yet, if you can use your strategy on a certain number of stocks to a 100% accuracy, it is more profitable then trying to blanket the entire earning season.
I was reading your earnings post, and it has been very interesting. I see your point in trying to quantify earning trades to set up a system that can predict the moves. What I've learned through 12 years of earning trades is that not all stocks move in the same manner. Ex. 2 stocks at new highs can both post a strong earning report, but one will climb and the other will drop.
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