rvince99's Recent Activity

  1. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    This is very involved. Risk of ruin (which can be defined as loss to within 100% of your starting bankroll, or any % of your starting...

    Jan 19, 2018 at 3:11 PM
  2. rvince99 Only here from time-to-time. Best to contact me through my website ralphvince.com »

    Jan 18, 2018 at 4:35 PM
  3. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    Actually, they are NOT too complicated. I have tried to simplify things. I find people implementing things like Elliott Wave or all sort...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 2:29 PM
  4. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    Risk of ruin is minimized by not trading! The smaller size you trade in, the less your chance of ruin. Your criteria is certainly not...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 2:26 PM
  5. rvince99 replied to the thread So this was like trading in the late 90s?.

    As for the mindset, this is much like the 90s, everyone trying to cal the top, and not just amateurs. As for the strength and drivers...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 2:23 PM
  6. rvince99 attached a file to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    Incidentally, the calculation for 1 market/system is pretty straigthforward, and i have it on a spreadsheet. For multpiple, it gets...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 1:09 PM
  7. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    10/.196 = 51.02 So I would trade one share for every $51.02 in equity, so 100,000 / 51.02 = 1960 shares, yes

    Jan 18, 2018 at 12:56 PM
  8. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    Ok, I never do this anymore, but I am in this case for the sake of clarity. Using the parameters of hte six scenario "game" you provided...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 12:35 PM
  9. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    Then we aren't talking about being at the peak of the curve, at the expected growth-optimal point, but for "risk-adjusted rate of...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 12:17 PM
  10. rvince99 liked Xela's post in the thread How did you decide on your trading strategy or method of trading?.

    One of its key strengths and reliabilities. "And so say all of us" ... well, ok: "some of us" - albeit that I'm sure I apply it...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 10:38 AM
  11. rvince99 liked JackRab's post in the thread How did you decide on your trading strategy or method of trading?.

    I would rely on whatever ideas you've got from your pro-days. Lean on the knowledge you have and try some different things. When I...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 10:37 AM
  12. rvince99 liked fyretrading's post in the thread How did you decide on your trading strategy or method of trading?.

    empirical evidence + good theories = good strategy

    Jan 18, 2018 at 10:37 AM
  13. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    And the over-arching issue, with anything in trading, "in the foxhole," is for simple things that work. There is an enormous disconnect...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 10:19 AM
  14. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    This is why I say to not use the Kelly Criterion in trading, even if one wants to be expected growth-optimal. The Kelly Criterion ==...

    Jan 18, 2018 at 9:49 AM
  15. rvince99 replied to the thread Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool.

    Kelly is what is not bound on the right at 1. The actual growth optimal fraction, the Optimal f calculation, IS bound on the right at 1....

    Jan 17, 2018 at 11:00 PM