Recent Content by Fair Value

  1. How is it possible that most traders burn their money so fast when buying stocks is a coinflip?

    The reason is the normal distribution of returns. Let's suppose you want to bet only on the long side. For every 10% up move, there is going to be...
    Post by: Fair Value, Feb 3, 2017 in forum: Trading

  2. Finding anomalies in price movement

    Hi all, Let's assume that a certain aspect of the price movement is a random distribution process. We plot two points on the distribution curve...
    Thread by: Fair Value, Jan 29, 2017, 2 replies, in forum: Strategy Building

  3. Designing an edge

    I agree, backtesting is just another way of curve fitting - selecting trading rules that perform well on a particular data segment. Seven years?...
    Post by: Fair Value, Jul 7, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  4. Designing an edge

    Here are some more charts from Wednesday's session. This time from the first few hours of trading. When the Primary Momentum (based on the...
    Post by: Fair Value, Jul 3, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  5. Designing an edge

    It is not yet a complete trading system that can be backtested. It is a method of indicating trading opportunities - an edge.
    Post by: Fair Value, Jul 2, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  6. Designing an edge

    Apparently other market participants detect the same inefficiencies using their own methods and enter orders to take advantage of them.
    Post by: Fair Value, Jul 2, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  7. Designing an edge

    I am pretty sure it will, for two reasons. One, the inefficiencies will continue to exist. Two, the model is not a result of data mining,...
    Post by: Fair Value, Jul 2, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  8. Designing an edge

    I decided to show the inefficiencies in the form of divergences between two oscillators (of the same order, frequency, normalization, etc.)...
    Post by: Fair Value, Jul 2, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  9. Designing an edge

    How do your generated reversal signals compare to price/momentum divergence signals? In the case of price/momentum divergence, you compare a...
    Post by: Fair Value, Jun 29, 2015 in forum: Strategy Building

  10. Designing an edge

    Instead of searching for an edge through data mining, how about designing an edge? I came up with a theory how the market "should" move and...
    Thread by: Fair Value, Jun 28, 2015, 22 replies, in forum: Strategy Building